A recent Pallas poll indicates a dramatic shift in Quebec's political landscape, with the Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Quebec Liberals now locked in a statistical tie. This development comes as opposition to Quebec sovereignty has surged to a new high, crossing all demographic lines.
Poll Results Show Tight Race
The survey, conducted for l'Actualité on February 21-22, 2026, finds the PQ leading with 30% support, a four-point drop from January. Meanwhile, the Quebec Liberals have gained three points to reach 27%. Given the poll's margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, the two parties are effectively neck and neck.
Francophone Voter Trends
Among francophone voters, who typically decide elections in Quebec, the PQ maintains a strong lead at 37%, though this represents a four-point decline over the past month. The Quebec Liberals have increased their support among this group by three points to 18%.
Sovereignty Opposition Hits Record High
The poll also highlights a significant challenge for the PQ, with 60% of respondents opposing Quebec independence, a six-point increase from the previous survey. This opposition is consistent across all demographics, including age, gender, and language groups. Support for sovereignty stands at 32%.
Other Party Standings
The Quebec Conservative Party holds third place provincially with 16% support, while the Coalition Avenir Québec has seen a three-point rise to 14%. Québec solidaire trails at 10% overall.
Context and Implications
This poll was conducted shortly after Charles Milliard was acclaimed leader of the Quebec Liberals, suggesting his leadership may be influencing voter sentiment. The PQ's key promise of a sovereignty referendum during their first term appears to be losing appeal, potentially transforming into a political liability as the next election approaches.
The survey involved 1,075 Quebec adults and has a margin of error of three percentage points, 19 times out of 20, underscoring the reliability of these findings in a rapidly evolving political climate.
