A recent poll indicates a significant shift in Ontario's political landscape, with the Ontario Liberals closing in on Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives as the premier's personal approval ratings continue to decline sharply.
Poll Shows Tightening Race
According to numbers released Wednesday by Liaison Strategies, the Ontario PCs now hold 40% of the decided and leaning vote, while the Ontario Liberals have surged to 36%. This narrow four-point gap marks a substantial contraction from previous months and comes as the province marks the one-year anniversary of the 2025 provincial election.
Liaison Strategies Principal David Valentin noted the results demonstrate a significant consolidation of the Liberal vote, particularly within the Greater Toronto Area. "In October, the PCs were at 47%, now they are at 40% — every month we have seen them shedding one or two points," Valentin said. "If the trend continues, they will soon be tied with the Liberals or trailing."
Liberal Resurgence Amid Leadership Transition
Remarkably, this Liberal momentum is occurring while the party remains in the process of selecting a new permanent leader. Following what Valentin described as 2025 being the Ontario Liberals' "annus horribilis," the party has managed to regroup despite recent setbacks.
Former Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, who resigned as Mayor of Mississauga in early 2024 to lead the provincial Liberals, failed to deliver electoral success. After leading her party to a third-place finish in the 2025 provincial election and losing her own seat, Crombie announced her intention to resign following poor support at the party's annual meeting last September. Ottawa South MPP John Fraser currently serves as interim leader.
Regional Support Patterns
The poll reveals distinct regional variations in party support:
- The Tories maintain leads across most of the province except in the 905 and 416 area codes
- In the 905 regions, Liberals enjoy 37% support compared to 35% for the Tories
- The gap widens significantly in the 416 area, where Liberals lead by nine points with 40% support against 31% for the Tories
NDP and Green Party Standing
The Ontario NDP, which formed the official opposition for a record third-straight term following the 2025 election, continues to see its support falter. The party now sits at 17% of the vote, down from 22% support two years ago.
The NDP's strongest support appears in south-central Ontario, where they command 28% support compared to the Liberals' 21%. However, in the 905 regions, NDP support is weakest at just 8% — nearly half of that district's undecided vote.
The Green Party maintains 5% support, while other parties collectively garnered 2% of decided and leaning voters.
Ford's Plummeting Approval Ratings
Despite province-wide support for the Ontario Tories, voters express significant dissatisfaction with Premier Doug Ford's performance. Only 30% of those polled approve of the job Ford is doing, compared to 66% who disapprove, with 4% undecided.
Ford faces particularly strong disapproval in Northern Ontario, southcentral Ontario, and the 416 area, where disapproval ratings exceed 70%. When asked whether Ontario is heading in the right direction, only 31% agreed with that sentiment, while 60% said the province is heading in the wrong direction, with 9% unsure.
Poll Methodology and Context
The Liaison Strategies poll was conducted among a sample of 1,000 Ontarians between February 20 and February 22, 2026, with a margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results suggest a potentially volatile political environment as the Ford government approaches the midpoint of its current term, with opposition parties gaining ground despite their own organizational challenges.
