Thomas Lukaszuk is hoping for a landslide. A blowout. A beatdown. The former deputy premier and leader of the Forever Canadian movement wants the question of separatism put to bed on Oct. 19, and the healing process in Alberta to begin on Oct. 20. For that to happen, the pro-Canada side needs not only to win, but win big.
“It has to be a decisive margin,” said Lukaszuk. “It’s hard to put a number on it, but I hope that the pro-Canadians will be above 75 per cent. North of 75 per cent sends a clear message that the vast majority of Canadians want to work together, but that doesn’t absolve us from addressing some of those outstanding issues, right?”
“But we need to win in a decisive way, to show, frankly, to show the world, not just Canada, that we cannot be split in any way, divided and conquered.”
For the federalists, the worry is that the separatists lose, but get a decent share of the vote, then this referendum may begat another referendum down the road. Separatism could become a perpetual question that hangs over the political landscape, as it does in Quebec.
Expert Warns of 'Zombie' Separatism
“I think they do need to win big,” said Lori Thorlakson, chair of the University of Alberta’s political science department. “Or else, (separatism) becomes this zombie that reactivates every time there’s some grievance that can be mobilized for political opportunity.”
She said that it’s important for the federalist side to spread a message of positivity — using scare tactics, like warning what Alberta could lose if it leaves Canada, might only embolden separatist support. The message has to be what Albertans have to gain by remaining with Canada.
Signature Drive Falls Short
During the signature gathering period, leaders of the separatist movement said they hoped for big numbers. Alberta Prosperity Project founder Dennis Modry called for one million signatures to be presented to Elections Alberta, a number that would “shock and awe” the political establishment in both Edmonton and Ottawa.
The Stay Free Alberta campaign didn’t get a million signatures. At best, the separatists got about one-third of that. Is it a sign that an 80-20 beatdown could be coming? Former Edmonton city councillor and mayoral candidate Michael Walters, who has been door knocking to whip up pro-Canada support, is cautiously optimistic.
“I think they may have gotten fewer signatures than they hoped, but they certainly got enough to make this a valid issue for a referendum question in October,” said Walters. “So, regardless of that, we have to deal with this reality, and the pro-federalists have to do everything we can to make sure that we actually achieve the numbers we need. I think an 80 to 85 per cent win for Canada here would be sufficient to dispense with this argument and that means everybody do what they can in their own way.”
Complacency a Concern
Lukaszuk and his allies are hoping for a romp. But he warned that voter participation amongst separatists will be close to 100 per cent, and complacency could be an issue for those federalists who see the early polling numbers and see a big lead for the stay-in-Canada movement.
