Could Failed Federal Negotiations Push Alberta Premier Toward Separatism?
The political landscape in Alberta is being shaped by a document that outlines a potential path to independence, with Premier Danielle Smith consistently following its principles. The Free Alberta Strategy, authored in 2021 by Rob Anderson (now Smith's chief of staff) along with academics Barry Cooper and Derek From, serves as a blueprint that could lead to Alberta's separation from Canada under certain circumstances.
The Strategic Blueprint for Alberta's Future
This comprehensive document presents a serious question for contemporary Alberta politics: Would Premier Smith openly embrace separatism if negotiations with the federal government in Ottawa collapse completely? The strategy suggests that if support for independence surges following failed talks, the province could move toward a referendum on separation.
The possibility is real and explicitly outlined in the Free Alberta document. According to its framework, if Alberta's deal with Ottawa fails, pursuing separatism becomes the next logical option. Smith's consistent adherence to the principles and plans contained within this strategy explains much about her public ambiguity regarding independence and her clear desire for a provincewide referendum on the matter.
From Political Strategy to Government Policy
The Free Alberta Strategy is no secret document gathering dust. Currently, it lends its name to an active lobby group that regularly issues statements and raises funds. More significantly, with Anderson at her side, Smith won the United Conservative Party leadership in 2022 by embracing the strategy's core principles—particularly the first stage of establishing a sovereignty act for Alberta.
This controversial approach helped Smith narrowly defeat six other leadership candidates, five of whom opposed her sovereignty agenda. Following the UCP's victory in the 2023 provincial election, Smith immediately began implementing elements of the Free Alberta script. The government passed the sovereignty act and initiated work on establishing a provincial police force, creating an Alberta pension plan, and pursuing numerous other measures outlined in the strategy.
The Dual Purpose of Sovereignty Measures
According to Free Alberta proponents, these initiatives serve dual purposes. They're essential for Alberta to gain proper sovereignty within the Canadian federation, but they also provide the necessary infrastructure for running an independent Alberta should that become necessary. The document presents these measures as building blocks that could support either enhanced provincial autonomy or complete independence.
Currently, it appears that Premier Smith genuinely seeks an accommodation with Ottawa that Albertans can accept. The efforts she and Anderson are making in ongoing talks with federal officials appear substantive rather than performative. However, the strategy contains a clear contingency plan should these negotiations fail completely.
The Independence Contingency Plan
Section 5 of the Free Alberta Strategy, titled "Last Resort: National Independence," outlines what happens if all accommodation efforts with Ottawa fall apart. This would be triggered by circumstances such as the failure to secure a solid pipeline deal or Ottawa's refusal to abandon key legislation affecting Alberta.
The document states: "Although national independence is a path of last resort, living under the rule of a cabal of eastern political elites that Albertans have not and will never elect, and whose goals and agenda mean economic and societal devastation for our people, cannot possibly be an option worth entertaining."
This section calls for establishing a blue-ribbon committee to "draft a blueprint document outlining a plan for the independence of Alberta." The language suggests that while independence represents a final option, the strategy's authors view continued federation under current terms as potentially unacceptable.
The political trajectory of Alberta under Premier Smith continues to follow this documented path, raising significant questions about the province's future relationship with the rest of Canada and the conditions under which separation might move from theoretical possibility to practical reality.
