Months ahead of the referendum, polls are showing a comfortable lead for the pro-Canadian vote. But, in the months leading up to Brexit, the polls showed the pro-EU forces with a big lead, too.
Former Edmonton city councillor and mayoral candidate Michael Walters is back on the doorknocking circuit. He’s not currently running for political office. But he is travelling through neighbourhoods in the southside area he used to represent, talking to people about the need to support the “stay in Canada” cause on their Oct. 19 ballots. That’s the date of the provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should have a separation referendum.
Walters is not affiliated with Thomas Lukaszuk’s Forever Canadian campaign or with any other federalist cause. He’s doing it simply because he wants to hammer home a grim warning to those he sees at the doors — not to take what the polls are telling Albertans for granted. Don’t assume a whopping victory for the pro-Canada side on Oct. 19. He wants to make sure people don’t treat the referendum like a civic election and not show up at the ballot box.
Grassroots Campaign Urges Voter Turnout
“We need to make sure that those federal citizens are motivated and committed to voting in October,” Walters said. “I personally believe that this is one of the most foolish political debates of my lifetime, but it’s here, like it or lump it.”
“My view is I can spend a couple days a week between now and Oct. 19 working with a fairly established engaged network of volunteers and friends and supporters from previous political campaigns who are seemingly willing to step up for this, and I want to engage them to go and talk to people, neighbour to neighbour, citizen to citizen, Edmontonian to Edmontonian, about the importance of getting out to vote in October and putting this issue behind us in a big way,” he added.
Polls Show Strong Federalist Lead
An Ipsos poll on June 5 showed just 18 per cent support for separation, a decline of 10 points over six months. Polymarket sells “no” (to leaving Canada) shares for 86 cents. For those unfamiliar with the Polymarket, if you buy the share for 86 cents, you’d cash it in for $1 if Alberta does vote to stay in Canada. These are slam-dunk indicators of a federalist landslide, right?
But what worries Walters is that too many federalists will take winning for granted and find something else to do on Oct. 19. He said grassroots campaigns have left egg on the pollsters faces in the past — most notably Donald Trump’s first presidential election win and the 2016 Brexit vote in the U.K. Trump wasn’t even considered a favourite for the Republican nomination, but steamrolled through Rust Belt swing states to eventually win the White House.
“The fact that he won is the reason I will not take this for granted, and nor do I think anybody should take it for granted,” said Walters. “I think anything’s possible now with social media playing such an expensive role in democracy. Anything could break any different way. Disinformation is a huge problem.”
Lessons from Brexit and Trump
The Brexit referendum in 2016 saw polls consistently predicting a remain victory, yet the leave side won narrowly. Similarly, in the 2016 U.S. election, most polls favored Hillary Clinton. Walters draws on these examples to caution against complacency. He emphasizes that low voter turnout among federalists could tip the balance, especially given the influence of social media and disinformation campaigns.
Walters’ door-knocking efforts aim to mobilize pro-Canada voters, ensuring they understand the stakes. He believes that every vote counts and that a strong turnout is necessary to decisively end the separation debate. His message resonates with many who remember the shock of Brexit and Trump victories.
