The 10-year anniversary of the UK's Brexit referendum on June 23, 2026, has sparked extensive Canadian media coverage, particularly in light of Alberta's forthcoming separatism referendum. Andrew Percy, a former UK politician, warns that Canadians who care about Alberta remaining in Confederation should be wary of what he calls 'Project Fear' tactics.
Lessons from Brexit's Project Fear
Percy argues that the key lesson from Brexit is not that leaving a union is economically disastrous, but that the losing Remain side's campaign strategy—known as 'Project Fear'—was counterproductive. 'My gast never fails to be flabbered by just how much commentary on the U.K. overseas is taken from the pages of the left wing Guardian,' he writes, noting that the UK economy has outperformed Germany and France since the referendum.
Project Fear, originally coined during the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, involved dire economic warnings from ministers, government agencies, the Bank of England, and business groups. These included predictions of immediate unemployment spikes, recession, stock market crashes, and financial meltdowns. Percy recalls that his own party's Chancellor of the Exchequer warned of 15 billion pounds in spending cuts and 15 billion pounds in tax increases if the UK left the EU.
Echoes in Canada's Alberta Debate
Percy sees similar 'Maple Project Fear' emerging in Canada, with some commentators issuing dire warnings about the economic consequences of Alberta separatism. He cautions that such tactics may alienate voters and backfire, as they did in the Brexit campaign. 'The Remain side's failed campaign became known as Project Fear,' he explains, noting that the strategy almost lost the 2014 Scottish referendum until a pivot to positive messaging.
Percy, who was a Remainer in the Scottish referendum but a Leaver in Brexit, emphasizes that the lesson for Canadians is that fear-based arguments can undermine trust and provoke the very outcome they seek to prevent. He urges Canadians to learn from the UK's experience rather than repeat its mistakes.
