It has now been nearly a month since Alberta's premier announced a historic and consequential fall referendum on the province's future within Confederation.
Smith's Position Remains Unclear
While Danielle Smith has been more direct in making her case for a vote for Alberta to "remain a province of Canada," she has still not provided clarity on another important matter. The other option on the ballot is whether to "commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada."
Premier's Justification
Smith justified the decision to put this question on the ballot by arguing that it is an opportunity to resolve this matter and put the issue to rest. As she said in her address last month, "It's time to have a vote, understand the will of Albertans on this subject, and move on."
Fatigue with the Debate
Arguably, there is much appeal in the notion of being able to move on. Recent polls have suggested sagging support for separatism, perhaps indicating some fatigue with this debate. With that surely comes unease over prolonging and intensifying the debate that a "commence" vote would unleash.
Uncertainty Persists
The premier cannot really guarantee that this issue will completely vanish from the political landscape, as she does not control the separatist movement or its leaders. A UCP convention follows a month after the referendum, and there are reports about a separatist push to either oust Smith as leader or alter the party's official position on this question.
A decisive vote for Canada might undermine such efforts, but it does not necessarily preclude them. What is within the control of the government is how it chooses to respond to a "remain" vote. To what extent is it committed to putting this matter to rest? Even if Albertans reject a binding separatism referendum, we could still get one anyway.
Legal Filing Reinforces Problem
This is the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over this process. A legal filing last week only reinforced this problem, as it was not accompanied by any further clarification around what this ultimately means going forward.
Appeal of Court Ruling
The Alberta government officially filed its appeal of the court ruling that blocked the separatist petition effort. The premier made clear her intent to appeal that decision immediately after it came down. The government disputes the notion that the petition — or Elections Alberta's approval of it — triggered a constitutional duty to consult with First Nations.
It would be a different situation if a similar and previous judgment had stood. That came in December, when Elections Alberta filed a court reference regarding the separatist petition. No signatures had been collected at that point. Instead, the province changed the law to disregard that consideration, and the separatists proceeded with the signature-gathering process. That effort supposedly surpassed the required threshold, and those signed petitions are in the possession of Elections Alberta.
