This past weekend, Alberta separatists posted propaganda on social media that columnist Lorne Gunter describes as outlandish and unbelievable. The separatists insist that independence would lower taxes, raise incomes, reduce the cost of living, shrink government, free up resources, increase local control, curb immigration, and keep woke ideologies out of schools.
Gunter sarcastically adds that separation might also bring more sunny days, better cat-dog relations, and cures for toenail fungus and psoriasis. While some claimed benefits have elements of truth, he argues they are only partial and would take years to materialize after a formal split.
Pension Plan Promises
Could an independent Alberta have a superior pension plan to the CPP? Theoretically, yes. Alberta has a younger population with fewer pensioners, which could allow lower premiums with similar benefits. The province also subsidizes federal pensions in older regions. However, Ottawa has disputed Alberta's pension numbers for three years, and a separation vote wouldn't resolve that debate.
Tax Savings Overstated
Gunter finds the tax-savings claim most off-base. He notes Alberta already has one of the highest-spending provincial governments. While separatists claim savings of $50-$75 billion annually from federal programs, more reliable estimates suggest around $30 billion. The biggest savings would come from equalization payments and wasteful federal projects like high-speed rail.
However, Alberta's provincial government wants its own high-speed rail between Edmonton and Calgary, costing nearly $40 billion. Additionally, many federal programs would need replacement, including defence, border protection, rural policing, and airports. Gunter questions whether Ottawa would simply give up Rocky Mountain national parks or international airports.
Government Size Unlikely to Shrink
Independence would likely not shrink government size. The provincial civil service would probably grow to cover current federal responsibilities, and the provincial budget would increase accordingly. Gunter concludes that separatist promises are largely exaggerated.
