Alberta Immigration Numbers Decline as Premier Smith Advances Referendum Questions
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is pushing forward with a controversial referendum on immigration policies, claiming that immigration places significant strain on provincially funded social services. This move comes despite official data showing a clear downward trend in immigration numbers across the province since 2023.
Referendum Questions Target Immigration Access to Services
In February, Smith announced that Albertans will vote on October 19 on nine yes-or-no referendum questions. Several of these questions, if approved, would grant the provincial government authority to implement legislation restricting access to social programs for certain immigrants. The announcement occurred just one week before Alberta revealed a substantial $9.4-billion deficit.
During her pre-taped provincial address on February 19, Smith acknowledged the impact of low oil prices on provincial revenues but also placed blame on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, labeling his immigration policies as "disastrous." The government has not provided specific cost breakdowns for providing social programs to migrants, though Smith indicated this is an area her administration will investigate.
Immigration Statistics Show Consistent Decrease
According to comprehensive provincial and federal data, immigration numbers in Alberta have been steadily decreasing since peaking in 2023. That year saw a total of 188,660 international and interprovincial migrants arriving in the province. By 2024, the number had dropped to 167,760 migrants—representing an 11 percent decrease from the previous year.
The most recent available data for 2025 shows net migration of 37,233 through the third quarter, continuing the downward trend. This consistent decline raises questions about the timing and necessity of the proposed referendum measures.
Academic Criticism of Referendum Approach
Reza Hasmath, a political science professor at the University of Alberta, offered critical analysis of the referendum initiative. While acknowledging that Alberta previously accommodated more migrants than it could adequately support, Hasmath questioned why a referendum is necessary now that immigration numbers are decreasing.
"Referendums are a very powerful democratic instrument," Hasmath stated, "but these questions are designed in a way to generate a predetermined answer, not really to elicit genuine public deliberation on this issue." He suggested one purpose of the referendum might be to provide "political cover" for the government, characterizing the approach as "reactive rather than forward-thinking policy making."
Specific Referendum Questions and Implications
One key referendum question asks whether Albertans support the province taking greater control over immigration to reduce numbers to more "sustainable levels," prioritize economic migrants, and give Albertans priority in new employment opportunities. This question reflects Smith's broader concerns about immigration's impact on provincial resources.
During her call-in radio program Your Province. Your Premier., Smith emphasized the provincial obligation to provide support programs for Canadian citizens, permanent residents, and potentially anyone arriving in Alberta following recent Supreme Court decisions.
The referendum initiative represents a significant political development in Alberta's approach to immigration policy, occurring against a backdrop of declining immigration numbers and ongoing debates about provincial authority versus federal jurisdiction in immigration matters.
