Naheed Nenshi could still lead the NDP into the next provincial election. But the political iceberg he’s now facing is starting to take on Titanic proportions.
Time must be running out for the Opposition leader, given the ruling Tories continue to poll well ahead despite a continuous litany of missteps by the UCP government. How much more ammunition does Nenshi need to force Premier Danielle Smith’s lot onto the back foot? He’s been served a smorgasbord of issues to hold those government feet to the fire. Yet, here we are, much closer to the next election than the previous one, with the UCP still firm favourites among Albertans.
We’ve witnessed health-care scandals, a teachers’ strike, book banning rows, a massive budget shortfall and now a huge ruckus about the leak of Albertans’ personal data by a separatist outfit with ties to the Tories. Yet, the Opposition still trails the government by a double-digit margin, according to recent polls.
And if all those issues aren’t enough of a political springboard for an official Opposition, there is also the not insignificant matter of a likely vote on separation. These are turbulent times, and governments traditionally fare poorly when things appear to be in constant upheaval. However, most Albertans still favour Smith over Nenshi.
That isn’t how it was supposed to play out when the NDP replaced longtime leader Rachel Notley with Calgary’s former mayor in what was little more than a political coronation almost two years ago. The reasoning was simple enough, at least it appeared so to many of the NDP faithful, who tend to make Edmonton home and therefore might have swallowed the Kool-Aid about Nenshi being a political superstar in his native Calgary. After all, our city remains the real electoral prize — the deciding voice in who wins the next provincial vote, given that the capital will likely remain overwhelmingly NDP orange while rural Alberta is Tory blue to its core.
So why hasn’t Calgary taken to Nenshi with all the enthusiasm that the return of a favourite son should generate? That was the plan, after all. It was why the party willingly overlooked the rather salient fact that Nenshi hadn’t bothered even joining their party until an opportunity arose to lead it. And his background as a Harvard-educated business consultant who enjoyed regular trips to the Davos gabfest in Switzerland to rub elbows with the high and mighty isn’t usually the sort of resume of someone keen to bring about a socialist utopia here at home.
In truth, Nenshi never regained the massive popularity he enjoyed as mayor in Calgary during the dreadful flood of 2013. In his first stint as mayor, he spoke for the entire city as it battled against nature’s fury. The performance thrust him onto the international stage, particularly after the media discovered he was the first Muslim mayor of a major North American city. The acclaim reached a fever pitch when Nenshi was picked as the world’s top mayor in 2014.
As time went by, Nenshi’s confidence appeared increasingly like arrogance, and when you have the microphone as mayor, it is simple enough to dominate civic debate. However, a series of high-profile spats with those he disagreed with, such as Uber head honcho Travis Kalanick and Shane Homes founder Cal Wenzel, added to a growing reputation for high-handedness. But provincial politics is a whole new ball game. It isn’t the civic variety where you can bully your opponent into submission by verbosity and mayoral privilege. It’s a dogfight — and one Smith excels in.
Can Nenshi reverse the trend? Yes. But he’d better do so soon, or the knives will be out from those NDP members who held their tongues when a veritable outsider from Calgary was acclaimed as leader. That clock is ticking.
Chris Nelson is a weekly columnist.
