Four Years Into Ukraine War: Tragic Normalcy and Stalled Peace Talks
Four years ago today, the first air-raid sirens echoed over Kyiv, sending the city's residents, including Globe foreign correspondent Mark MacKinnon, scrambling for bomb shelters. The Kremlin anticipated a swift victory, gravely underestimating the fierce Ukrainian resistance. Now, as the conflict enters its fifth year, it has become both tragically familiar and increasingly perilous.
The Cost of Resistance and Shifting Mood
MacKinnon, who recently returned from another reporting trip to Ukraine, describes a war that has settled into a grim routine. Peace talks have stalled, Russia's military advances slowly, and global attention is waning. "It was clear this would be a much longer war than the Russians had forecast," MacKinnon reflects on the early days. "But I don't think anybody thought it would still be going in February, 2026."
A recent poll reveals Ukrainians are more skeptical than last year about the war ending in 2026, yet more determined to continue fighting. "Ukrainians are tired, for sure. They want the war to end. But there is no mood for surrender," MacKinnon explains. They view this conflict as their generation's duty, driven by a resolve to secure genuine independence from Moscow and prevent future invasions.
Impact of Halted U.S. Military Assistance
The situation has deteriorated since former U.S. President Donald Trump cut off direct military aid early last year. In Kyiv, once relatively safe, air defenses are now overstretched. A shortage of U.S.-made Patriot missiles means more Russian ballistic and cruise missiles are penetrating defenses, leading to a spike in civilian casualties. "When I was in Kyiv in January, I spent more time in shelters than I had since the very start of the war," MacKinnon notes.
On the front lines, the imbalance is stark. Ukrainian forces face severe ammunition shortages, forcing rocket and artillery teams to choose targets carefully. "They want to fire 10 times to take out an enemy position, but they only have two shots. Meanwhile, the Russians are firing 20 back at them," MacKinnon says. This has enabled a slow Russian advance in the Donbas region.
Drone Warfare: A Transformative Threat
Drones have revolutionized the conflict, comparable to the historical introduction of tanks or catapults. "If you're a soldier in a trench, you used to be able to take cover during an enemy artillery barrage. Now a drone can come into the trench and hunt you down where you're crouching," MacKinnon describes. This new reality has altered risk calculations for soldiers and journalists alike, who now must operate with drone detectors and enhanced safety protocols.
The Globe and Mail Foundation is assisting in training Ukrainian journalists to handle the drone threat, highlighting its unprecedented nature. Casualty estimates are grim, with one U.S. think tank suggesting 100,000 to 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 275,000 to 325,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. In Russia, decades of propaganda glorifying World War II sacrifices have helped insulate Putin from public backlash over these losses.
Stalled Peace Negotiations and Political Maneuvering
So-called peace talks lack substance, with no real progress on critical issues like refugee rights or postwar accountability. "I hesitate to call them peace talks," MacKinnon states. Both Ukraine and Russia are engaged in a political game, each attempting to sway Trump to blame the other. Putin's maximalist goal remains control over Ukraine, whether through military means or by installing a Kremlin-friendly leader.
"There's not a substantive peace effort going on here – just an effort by both sides to try to get Trump to blame the other," MacKinnon concludes. As the war drags on, the tragic normalcy deepens, with Ukrainians holding firm in their resistance despite the mounting costs and uncertain future.
