Switzerland is heading to the polls next Sunday for a referendum that could make it the first country in the world to impose a legal cap on its population. The proposal, which would limit the population to 10 million, has deeply divided the Alpine nation and drawn comparisons to Brexit.
Population Growth and Immigration
As of 2025, Switzerland's population stands at approximately 9.1 million. Official projections indicate that the country is on track to reach 10.5 million by 2055, driven largely by immigration. Data from the Federal Statistical Office shows that since the introduction of free movement of people between Switzerland and the European Union in 2002, the population has grown by around 1.7 million. Currently, 28% of the population are foreign nationals.
The ‘Sustainability Initiative’
The proposal, titled “No to a Switzerland with 10 million! (Sustainability Initiative),” was launched by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP). The party argues that “uncontrolled immigration is causing Switzerland to grow far too quickly,” straining infrastructure, roads, public transportation, rental markets, the health-care system, and contributing to increased crime.
Referendums are a common feature of Swiss politics, with citizens voting approximately four times a year on national and regional issues. To initiate a referendum, organizers must collect 100,000 signatures within 18 months.
What Would Happen if the Proposal Passes?
If the population exceeds 9.5 million before 2050, the government and parliament would be required to take initial measures targeting asylum-seekers and families of foreign residents. Should the population surpass 10 million before 2050, Swiss lawmakers would need to impose further restrictions and terminate international agreements, including the one with the EU allowing free movement of people.
Opposition and Criticism
The Swiss parliament as a whole opposes the SVP-led initiative and recommends that the public reject it. The left-wing Green Party has called the initiative “anti-foreigner,” the centre-left to left Socialist Party has labeled it a “chaos initiative,” and centrists have dismissed it as a “superficial solution.” Multinational companies like Nestle have also spoken out, warning that a ‘yes’ vote would harm the economy by limiting access to skilled foreign labor and damaging relations with the European Union, Switzerland’s largest export market.
Polls and Prospects
Recent polls suggest a tight race. The latest survey by GFS Bern for public broadcaster SRG SSR indicates that 52% of respondents are against the population cap, while 45% are in favor. The vote requires a double majority to pass: an absolute majority of votes nationally and a majority among Switzerland’s 26 cantons.
If approved, the so-called “Swiss Brexit” would mark a significant shift in Swiss policy and could have far-reaching implications for the country's economy and international relations.
