As the 2026 mayoral campaign in Ottawa gains momentum, Jeff Leiper faces not only incumbent Mark Sutcliffe but also a daunting historical trend: Ottawa has not elected a leftist candidate as mayor in nearly 50 years. The last was Marion Dewar in 1978.
A Historical Anomaly
Since Dewar, the city has seen seven mayors—four after amalgamation—and several leftist challengers, including the well-qualified Alex Munter, have fallen short. This pattern raises the question: can Leiper break the streak? His ability to overcome voter antipathy toward left-leaning politicians will be decisive.
It is puzzling why a city that often elects Liberals federally and provincially, and NDP candidates in central and western areas, consistently rejects left-leaning mayoral candidates.
Near Misses and Key Elections
The best chance for a leftist candidate came in 2006, during the so-called “LRT election,” when the light rail issue became a political liability for incumbent Bob Chiarelli. A weakened Chiarelli faced Kanata councillor Alex Munter, widely expected to win, until tech executive Larry O’Brien entered the race, promising to run the city like a business. O’Brien won, with Munter second and Chiarelli third. Despite O’Brien’s disastrous single term, voters did not turn left; they elected Jim Watson.
Urban-Suburban Divide
Former Ottawa councillor Alex Cullen points to the deep urban-suburban/rural divide as part of the problem. Urban councillors, often leftist, are perceived as out of touch with rural and suburban issues. Moreover, urban candidates frequently fail to run broader campaigns beyond their inner-city comfort zones, leaving suburban and rural voters feeling disconnected.
Leftist candidates tend to advocate for increased spending to address social issues, rarely championing lower taxes or reduced budgets. The concerns in Stittsville or Navan differ greatly from those in Vanier or ByWard Market, where social problems are more visible. Urban candidates are often seen—fairly or not—as free spenders who will raise taxes on frivolous programs.
A Recent Example: Catherine McKenney
A prominent example is Catherine McKenney, a popular city councillor who was considered a strong contender in the 2022 election against Mark Sutcliffe. However, their campaign faltered early due to a proposal to build a $250 million bike lane project in one term—a plan originally slated for 25 years. Sutcliffe seized on this to paint McKenney as an out-of-touch free spender with misplaced priorities. McKenney never recovered; while they won most inner-city wards, Sutcliffe dominated suburban and rural areas to become mayor.
As Leiper enters the race, he must navigate these historical and demographic challenges to have any chance of breaking the nearly 50-year trend.
