The United States and Iran appear to be on the verge of reaching a comprehensive agreement to end the ongoing war and reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Monday that negotiations are "proceeding nicely," while simultaneously reiterating his warning that military action would resume if a deal is not finalized. The exact timeline and mechanisms for finalizing the agreement remain unclear, with details emerging from regional and U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the talks.
Diplomatic Movements and Negotiations
An Iranian delegation, led by parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, traveled to Qatar on Monday as part of the ongoing discussions. Qalibaf previously led historic face-to-face talks with U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan last month. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, acknowledged that understandings have been reached on "a large portion of the issues" but cautioned that significant work remains. "To say that this means an agreement is on the verge of being signed is not something anyone can claim," Baghaei told reporters.
Key Components of the Emerging Deal
End of Hostilities
The war, which began 12 weeks ago with U.S. and Israeli attacks that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials, has been the central focus. Tehran has insisted that any deal must address an end to fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon, where Iranian-backed Hezbollah has been engaged with Israel. A fragile ceasefire has held since April 7, despite occasional drone and missile attacks on the United Arab Emirates and exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz. A more permanent truce would allow global shipping, including an estimated 20% of the world's oil, to resume through the strait and facilitate the rebuilding of energy and other infrastructure in the region.
According to regional officials, the draft deal includes an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as a commitment by Iran to refrain from interfering in the domestic affairs of regional countries—a reference to Iran's support for proxies such as Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hamas militants in Gaza, and Shiite armed groups in Iraq. However, the U.S. insists that Israel retain the right to respond to threats in Lebanon, while Iran rejects this condition. A U.S. official confirmed that the deal would guarantee Israel's right to act against imminent threats in self-defense.
Gradual Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Although the stated objectives of the U.S. and Israel were to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, curb its missile program, and end its support for armed proxies, Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz quickly became a global concern. Hundreds of ships carrying oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and other supplies were stranded, causing price spikes worldwide. Under the emerging agreement, the strait would gradually reopen in parallel with the U.S. ending the blockade of Iran's ports imposed on April 17. The blockade has severely limited Iran's ability to export oil and generate revenue for its struggling economy. One regional official briefed on the negotiations stated that the U.S. would allow Iran to sell its oil through sanctions waivers, with sanctions relief and the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds to be negotiated over a 60-day period.
Iran to Give Up Highly Enriched Uranium Stockpile
Iran's nuclear program and concerns over its potential pursuit of nuclear weapons remain underlying tensions. The U.S. and Israel had considered complex military operations to eliminate Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. Under the potential deal, Tehran would agree to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to regional officials. One official with direct knowledge of the negotiations said the method of giving up the stockpile would be subject to further talks over the 60-day period, with some likely diluted and the rest transferred to a third country—Russia has offered to take it. A U.S. official confirmed that if Iran does not give up its stockpile, there will be no sanctions relief. Iran currently possesses 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran maintains that it has an "inalienable" right to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. On Sunday, President Masoud Pezeshkian told state TV that they are ready "to assure the world that we are not after a nuclear weapon."
Unresolved Issues
Despite claims of progress, several issues remain unsettled. These include whether Iran will be allowed to continue enriching uranium and to what level, as well as the fate of its missile program, which Israel views as a major threat. While the U.S. and Israel initially hoped for a change in Iran's government following nationwide protests, discussion of leadership change in Tehran appears to be off the table. Additionally, Iran's past demands for a withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region and reparations for war damage are not mentioned in the current draft.
President Trump wrote on social media Monday: "Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely! It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before — And nobody wants that!" The coming days and weeks will determine whether a final agreement can be reached or if the region will return to conflict.
