One of President Donald Trump's favorite metaphors is that he's got the cards — that through the might of the United States and his own acumen he can overpower any adversary. On Iran, the former casino owner is learning that he, in fact, doesn't have such a strong hand after all.
As he travels this week to China on a trip already delayed by his war, Trump will not project strength as a victor but instead will remain beleaguered both by Iran's stubborn refusal to accept an agreement on his terms and dwindling approval from Americans who did not support the conflict and are now paying higher prices at the pump.
Iran's Resilience and Strategic Moves
Trump joined Israel in attacking Iran on February 28, with strikes quickly killing the longtime supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and much of the other top brass. But Iran quickly hit back by exerting control over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway through which one-fifth of global oil once sailed, and it has rained missiles and drones on U.S.-allied Gulf Arab monarchies, shattering the oil-rich countries' hard-earned reputation for stability.
The United States would need massive force to dislodge Iran from the strait, which would cause major new havoc on global markets and new threats to Gulf Arabs, said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Misjudging the Iranian Regime
Iran's cleric-run state ruthlessly crushed protests in January and is now dominated by the elite Revolutionary Guards, who are even less interested in compromise with the United States. "I think that the administration has fundamentally misjudged the character and the approach of the regime in Tehran," Yacoubian said.
Trump declared a ceasefire on April 8 and has indefinitely extended it, even as he was twice forced to abort trips by top U.S. officials to negotiate in Pakistan after Iran balked at attending. Trump last week announced "Project Freedom" in which U.S. forces would help ships through the Strait of Hormuz, before suspending the operation two days later as Gulf Arabs worried about coming under fresh attack.
Trump then spent the weekend building anticipation for any Iranian response, only to declare Monday that Tehran's counter-proposal was "garbage."
Desperate for a Deal
"Trump's actions over the last month show a leader who's very desperate to end this conflict, but he continues to threaten more conflict if he doesn't get what he wants," said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. "That shows that he simply does not know how to get a better deal. He could have gotten a better deal before the war began," he said.
Trump just last year had berated past U.S. leaders for Middle East interventionism and has described China as the main challenger to the United States. But he now arrives in China "with a much weaker hand," Katulis said.
