In the chaotic fog of war, making long-term predictions is a special kind of folly. No one can foresee the ultimate outcome of Operation Epic Fury. However, even at this early stage, there are clear elements to both celebrate and condemn in the unfolding conflict.
Celebrations and Condemnations in the Conflict
On the positive side, the professionalism and courage of the American military stand out as commendable. The demise of Ayatollah Khamenei, along with many of his murderous henchmen, marks a just end to a repressive regime. If this operation leads to the conclusion of Iran's nearly half-century of domestic repression and international terrorism, including its nuclear ambitions, it would be a monumental achievement. Such an outcome would significantly bolster President Donald Trump's presidential legacy, regardless of one's political stance.
Conversely, the manner in which this war was initiated raises serious constitutional concerns. The ever-changing rationales, failure to consult Congress, and Congress's own refusal to demand proper authorization represent an outrage. This approach undermines the system of checks and balances essential to a constitutional republic. If the war is deemed successful, it may set a dangerous precedent for future presidents, weakening democratic safeguards. Alternatively, if it ends in disaster, it could spur efforts to restore these vital systems to prevent similar calamities.
The Universal Phenomenon of Blowback
Everything currently unfolding in and above Iran hinges on the consequences, both intended and unintended, of one man's unilateral decision to launch a war. In essence, we are all on blowback watch. The concept of blowback, which originated in the 1950s-era CIA but dates back to Thucydides, refers to the unintended negative repercussions of actions. As former CIA analyst Chalmers Johnson noted, even an empire cannot control the long-term effects of its policies.
Iran has long cultivated fear of blowback as a core national security strategy, building an "Axis of Resistance" including groups like Hezbollah and Hamas to deter attacks. However, this strategy failed to account for blowback as a universal phenomenon, not just a check on Western power. Operation Epic Fury itself is largely a direct consequence of the heinous October 7, 2023, attacks led by Iran's proxy Hamas. The blowback from that event led to the degradation of Iran's defenses, making the current operation feasible.
Challenges and Criticisms of Regime Change
Regime change from the air is notoriously difficult, and achieving it without causing chaos on the ground, as seen in Libya in 2011, is even harder. While warnings about potential blowback are common in op-eds and cable news discussions, less attention has been paid to whether Trump subscribes to blowback theory. Amid the bombing campaigns, Trump's approach focuses on quick "wins" with minimal lasting entanglements, as evidenced by his discussions of "off-ramps" and renewed negotiations with Iran.
If the situation becomes too messy, particularly if Iran's strategy of regional disruption succeeds, criticism could shift from accusing Trump of recklessness to blaming him for not finishing the job, leaving the region in turmoil. Despite seeming hypocritical to critics for violating promises to end "forever wars," Trump likely wants to avoid such prolonged conflicts. However, he cannot control the long-term effects of his policies, and blowback remains a real risk.
