A new poll indicates that even if a Democrat were to replace Donald Trump in the White House, Canadian voter intentions would remain largely unchanged, with Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party still leading. The survey, conducted by Abacus Data, found that 44 percent of respondents would vote Liberal and 36 percent Conservative in a federal election if a Democrat were in office, almost identical to current intentions of 45 and 36 percent respectively.
Anti-American Sentiment Lingers
The findings reflect historically high anti-Americanism in Canada, according to Andrew Hale, senior fellow at Advancing American Freedom. "The poll is a reaction to the anti-American sentiment in Canada right now. Trump is so unpopular in Canada," Hale said, noting that U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra is also widely disliked.
Geopolitical experts have long credited Trump's second term and his aggressive trade policies with boosting Carney's rise and electoral success. The Liberals trailed the Conservatives by over 20 percentage points in late 2024 before the trade war began.
Deep Political Impact
David Coletto, founder of Abacus Data, explained that simply removing Trump from the equation does not drastically change the political landscape in Canada. "In the current context, there is widespread favourability towards the prime minister and his government," Coletto said. Trade watchers see the lack of change as a sign of Trump's deep political impact, which has driven a surge in Canadian nationalism.
Frank Graves of EKOS Research added that Trump has been such a shock that voters are not yet ready to reset. The shift to Liberal support is already priced into the political landscape, overshadowed by Trump, so a simple candidate swap does not undo the damage. However, he cautioned that views could change over time.
