Federal Liberals Maintain Strong Lead Over Conservatives in Latest Tracking Poll
As voters prepare for three crucial byelections, the federal political landscape remains largely unchanged according to the latest weekly tracker from Liaison Strategies. The poll reveals that while Liberal support has experienced a minor decline, the party continues to hold a substantial double-digit advantage over the opposition Conservatives.
Steady Numbers with Minor Shifts
The survey indicates that if an election were held today, 43% of respondents would support Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals, compared to 33% backing Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. The federal NDP trails significantly at just 10% support. This represents a one percentage point decrease for the Liberals from the previous week, while Conservative numbers remain unchanged at 33%.
"The federal landscape remains remarkably stable with the Liberals holding a double-digit lead," said Liaison's David Valentin. "That being said, their support continues to slide ever so slightly as it has for the past few weeks, they have been losing one point per week for the past four weeks."
Byelections Could Shift Parliamentary Dynamics
Three byelections scheduled for Monday could potentially alter the parliamentary balance of power. Voters in Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, and the suburban Montreal riding of Terrebonne will fill vacancies left by departing MPs. While Liberal victories are anticipated in the Toronto ridings, the Bloc Quebecois has expressed optimism about capturing Terrebonne—a constituency the Liberals originally won by a single vote before the Supreme Court overturned the result in February due to mail-in ballot irregularities.
"After the by-elections today the Liberals will have a working majority," Valentin noted. "It will be interesting to see if there is any change in voting intentions as a result and if long-term, voters begin judging the government differently given its newfound capacity."
Leader Approval Ratings Show Contrasting Trajectories
Prime Minister Mark Carney maintains a solid 60% approval rating among those surveyed, representing a recovery from his January low of 55% though down slightly from his March highs. Carney's approval had dipped from the mid-60s to 55% in January before gradually rebounding through February and March.
"Carney's numbers took a hit in January, dropping from the mid-60s to 55%, but he's clawed it all back," Valentin explained. "He's been back above 60% through February and March, and now sits at 60%. More importantly, his negatives have held steady around 30%, leaving him as the only leader with a clear net-positive."
In contrast, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's approval rating stands at 37%, marginally lower than previous readings but still above his 12-month low of 35% recorded in May. Poilievre's unfavorable ratings hover just above 50%, with only 4% of voters indicating they don't know him.
"His favourables have been stuck in the high 30s all year and still can't crack 40, while his unfavourables sit just over 50%," Valentin observed. "With only 4% of voters saying they don't know him, there's not much room left to move. Opinions are baked in."
Methodology and Regional Support
The poll was conducted between March 23 and April 4 with 1,000 Canadian voters and carries a margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Ontario continues to serve as a stronghold for the Liberals, where they maintain a 17 percentage point advantage over the Conservatives—a lead that has remained consistent in recent weeks.
