Prime Minister Mark Carney is heading to a NATO summit in Turkey this week with a message that Canada is now pulling its weight in the alliance and ready to do what it takes to meet the ambitious spending target set for 2035. However, Canada's increased defence spending will likely be overshadowed by U.S. President Donald Trump's threats regarding Iran, Greenland, or a possible U.S. withdrawal from NATO.
NATO summit expected to be tense
“I think this might be the tensest summit yet,” said Stephen Saideman, head of the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University. “On the one hand, (Trump) expects NATO to jump and dance whenever he demands. On another hand, NATO countries paid a real price for this failed war in Iran.”
Trump has consistently threatened to pull out of NATO since returning to office, with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte resorting to flattery to convince him to stay. Rutte has referred to Trump as “daddy,” though he has said it stemmed from an awkward translation. Recently, Rutte attempted to woo the president with the “Trump trillion,” showing a chart that Europe and Canada have added more than a trillion dollars in defence spending since Trump first took office in 2017.
Appeasement attempts and challenges
Robert Baines, President and CEO of the NATO Association of Canada, said he expects a repeat of Rutte’s “teacher moment” during this summit to “appease” the U.S. President. “I think the only challenge is going to be making sure the Secretary-General doesn’t bend over too far backwards,” Baines said, adding that the “daddy” comment and constant appeasement have left a “bad taste” in some people’s mouths.
Trump came out swinging again against the alliance just last week, writing on Truth Social that it is “ridiculous” that the U.S. spends more on NATO than any other country. He has also complained allies have not helped him in the war in Iran. Trump has not abandoned his idea of taking over Greenland, a prospect that is bound to increase tension among European allies. Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry said the president was still mulling over that idea days ago.
Canada's position and spending
Saideman said NATO’s goal is to make sure the alliance survives the week, while Canada’s will be to avoid being targeted with insults. Notably, Trump has not singled out Canada over its defence spending in the lead-up to this year’s meeting, although he has done so in the past. Canada announced earlier this year it had achieved NATO’s two per cent of GDP defence spending commitment after reclassifying the Canadian Coast Guard’s budget as national defence and giving a substantial pay raise to military personnel. Thanks to billions in investments in infrastructure such as ports and air bases and major procurement decisions, including new submarines, Carney recently said the country is on track to meet NATO’s next commitment of spending five per cent of GDP on defence by 2035.
