In a historic demographic shift, Canada's population experienced a net decline in 2025, marking the first yearly decrease since Confederation in 1867. According to the latest quarterly estimates released by Statistics Canada, the country's population dropped by approximately 102,000 people, or 0.2%, from January 1, 2025, to January 1, 2026.
Unprecedented Population Decrease
The population stood at 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026, reflecting a reduction of 102,000 individuals compared to the same date in 2025. This decline is particularly notable as it represents the first annual net decrease in Canada's population since the nation's founding. While the population grew by over 77,000 people in the first half of 2025, this growth was overshadowed by a loss of about 180,000 people in the second half of the year.
Role of Non-Permanent Residents
Statistics Canada highlighted that the reduction in non-permanent residents was a significant factor in slowing population growth. The number of non-permanent residents, which includes individuals on work or study permits, asylum claimants, and their family members, decreased from 3,149,131 in October 2024 to 2,676,441 by January 1, 2026. This steady decline contributed substantially to the overall population drop.
Impact of Immigration Legislation
New immigration policies could influence population trends in the coming months. The federal government has introduced temporary measures to assist Quebec in supporting skilled workers seeking permanent residency. Additionally, plans are underway to fast-track the transition of approximately 33,000 work permit holders to permanent residents in 2026 and 2027.
Despite these initiatives, Statistics Canada projects that population growth is likely to remain below the levels seen in the fourth quarters of 2023 and 2024. For context, the population increased by more than 80,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024 and by about 257,000 in the same period of 2023, primarily due to permanent and temporary international migration.
Recent Migration and Birth Rates
In the last three months of 2025, Canada welcomed 83,000 permanent residents, representing the only positive growth rate during that period. However, this figure was 19% lower than the same time in 2024. This influx helped offset low natural birth rates, as there were 781 fewer births than deaths between October 2025 and January 2026.
Cautious Interpretation Advised
Statistics Canada cautioned that the overall population decrease from last year should be interpreted with care. The agency noted that increased numbers of work extensions and study permits could lead to updates in the coming months, potentially altering the current demographic picture. As Canada navigates these changes, ongoing monitoring of migration patterns and policy impacts will be essential for understanding future population trends.
