On Sunday morning, Prime Minister Mark Carney declared that Canada's historic closeness with the United States now represents a weakness, opening the door to a fundamental rethinking of Canadian foreign policy. However, if diversification means turning toward China, Canadians deserve a clear-eyed assessment of the risks, not just the opportunities. That assessment becomes far more complicated when viewed against what is now unfolding inside China's military leadership.
The Scope of the Purge
There is a tendency in Ottawa and other Western capitals to view China's ongoing purge of senior military leadership as a familiar exercise in political control by Xi Jinping. That reading is too narrow. What is unfolding inside the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is not simply discipline imposed from the top. It is an indicator of stress within the system itself. It raises fundamental questions about trust, reliability, and the cohesion of China's most sensitive military capabilities. At its core, this is about confidence, and the erosion of confidence inside a nuclear-armed great power carries consequences that extend far beyond China.
The breadth of those removed reinforces the point. Former defence minister Li Shangfu was abruptly dismissed after disappearing from public view, following an earlier investigation into his predecessor Wei Fenghe. China's top general, Zhang Youxia, and vice chair of the powerful Central Military Commission and former head of the Armaments Department were also sacked.
Rocket Force Disruption
Inside the PLA Rocket Force, the scale has been even more striking. Former commanders Li Yuchao, Wang Houbin, and former political commissar Xu Zhongbo were removed alongside deputy commanders Liu Guangbin and Zhang Zhenzhong. Additional senior officers tied to missile operations and procurement networks have been detained or placed under investigation, while parallel sweeps through the Equipment Development Department have targeted those responsible for weapons acquisition and oversight.
Five more generals may have been formally dismissed last week, along with other senior military leaders and government officials, including Yang Guang, Commander of the Rocket Force's 64th Base, which controls China's land-based nuclear deterrent. This is not a narrow campaign; it is a systemic disruption touching the core of China's strategic deterrent.
Comparing to the US
A similar argument might be made about personnel changes under Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, particularly toward officers associated with General Mark Milley or debates around DEI culture. But the difference is fundamental. In the United States, these moves occur within a system of civilian oversight and have not targeted the core of its strategic deterrent. In China, they have. When the most senior political leadership begins to question the reliability of its own missile forces, the implications are immediate.
For Canada, betting on Beijing means trusting a partner whose military command structure is in turmoil. The purges reveal deep instability that Ottawa cannot ignore. As Carney rethinks Canada's foreign policy, the risks of aligning with a nuclear power undergoing such internal upheaval must be weighed carefully against any potential benefits.
