By the end of 2025, at least 352,000 Russian soldiers had died in the war against Ukraine, according to a new investigation by two exiled Russian publications, Mediazona and Meduza. The death tally was released on May 9, coinciding with Russia's national holiday marking victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
Methodology Behind the Numbers
The figure was derived from a database maintained by Mediazona in collaboration with the BBC Russian Service, which relies on publicly reported deaths, including local reports, obituaries, and social media posts from relatives. This list now contains 261,000 confirmed names of deceased Russian soldiers. Mediazona and Meduza extrapolated an additional 90,000 names by estimating excess deaths in Russian probate records and individuals missing or declared dead by court order. The outlets note that it takes time for a missing person to be officially declared dead, so the actual number is likely higher.
Broader Casualty Estimates
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, reported in January that Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties since the war began in February 2022. Their analysis estimated that 325,000 Russian soldiers and 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed as of 2025, making this the deadliest conflict since World War II. Although Russia has managed to control nearly one-fifth of Ukraine's territory, gains along the 1,200-kilometer front line have slowed significantly, with Moscow gaining less than 1.5 percent since 2024, according to CSIS.
Recent Developments
The slowdown continued into spring 2026, with Ukraine's counter-offensives resulting in a net loss of territory in April, as reported by The Economist. Russia is losing approximately 35,000 soldiers per month, exceeding its recruitment rate. Ukraine's advancing drone capabilities have enabled a mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and personnel since early 2026, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The think tank noted that Ukrainian forces have intentionally exacerbated other Russian vulnerabilities over the past year, including through a February 2026 block on Russia's use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine and an operational long-range strike campaign against Russian military and oil infrastructure deep inside Russia, which significantly disrupted Russian communications on the front line and drone operations, as well as Russia's oil and gas profits.
Ceasefire and Prisoner Swap
On May 8, 2026, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a U.S.-backed three-day ceasefire, but both sides soon accused each other of violations. Russia's defense ministry claimed Kyiv committed more than 23,000 ceasefire violations, while Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drone strikes along the front line resulted in three deaths. These violations have jeopardized an agreement to swap 1,000 prisoners and put negotiations on hold.
