Is Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre's position under serious threat? While he may not be a 'dead man walking,' political analysts suggest he is certainly wounded. The catalyst for this renewed scrutiny was the shocking floor crossing of MP Michael Ma last week, which has reignited intense debate about Poilievre's capacity to lead.
A Leadership Under Fire
Ma's defection is not an isolated incident. It follows a pattern of erosion that began earlier in 2025. During the federal budget period, Conservative MP Chris d'Entremont crossed the floor to join the Liberals. Simultaneously, fellow Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux resigned from the caucus to sit as an independent. These moves critically weakened the Official Opposition's numbers, bringing Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government within sight of a majority.
The internal discontent appears palpable. One unnamed Conservative caucus member told the National Post they expect at least two more defections. The source delivered a scathing assessment of Poilievre's leadership style, stating, "Poilievre will continue to die a death of 1,000 cuts, because I've never seen a guy who's so unaware of the room he's in, and I've never seen a guy who just refuses to stop doing stupid things."
Poilievre's public performance has also drawn criticism. In a year-end interview with CBC's Rosemary Barton, when questioned about Ma's crossing, he deflected, calling it a "problem of Mark Carney's leadership" before pivoting to rehearsed lines about a "costly Liberal majority." Observers noted he appeared weary and stumbled over his words, a stark contrast to the energetic campaigner seen in the last election.
The Contenders Waiting in the Wings
This turmoil has inevitably sparked chatter about potential successors. Who are the figures being discussed as possible pretenders to the Conservative throne?
The Caucus Contender: Jamil Jivani
Durham MP Jamil Jivani publicly affirmed his support for Poilievre in a recent CBC interview. However, when pressed on whether Poilievre could remain leader if another MP defected to the Liberals, Jivani offered a diplomatic, non-committal response: "I can't speak for him." This comment follows Jivani's own rising profile, marked by a university tour and his offer to help Prime Minister Carney broker a trade deal with U.S. President JD Vance. A fellow MP describes him as "brilliant" and notes he remains "still close to JD."
The Western Hope: Jason Kenney
Former Harper-era cabinet minister and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney is often cited as a candidate with national appeal. His assets are significant: strong bilingualism and extensive experience at both the provincial and federal levels. At a Canadian American Business Council event in Ottawa last month, Kenney swore he was not interested in a federal leadership run. Yet, his current media tour, including interviews with French-language CBC, is keeping him prominently in the public eye—a strategic move for anyone keeping their options open.
The Bay Street Scion: Mark Mulroney
Rumours from spring 2025 suggested that Bay Street figures were seeking to mount a leadership campaign for Mark Mulroney, then vice-chair of global banking and markets at Scotiabank. This was after Poilievre lost both the election and his own seat. Sources indicate the business community was unimpressed with the party's direction and desired a leader more aligned with their interests. While Mulroney's move to become Global Vice Chair of CIBC this fall might reduce his appetite for the grueling world of politics, his name remains in the mix among elite circles.
An Uncertain Future for the Conservatives
The coming months will be critical for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada. The defections of Michael Ma, Chris d'Entremont, and the resignation of Matt Jeneroux have created a tangible crisis of confidence. Whether Poilievre can stabilize his leadership or whether the party will turn to an alternative like Jivani, Kenney, or an outsider like Mulroney remains the central question in Ottawa. The stability of the Official Opposition and the dynamics of the House of Commons hang in the balance, setting the stage for a potentially dramatic political year ahead.
