UCP Support Rebounds in Alberta After Year-Long Decline, Leger Poll Shows
A recent Leger poll indicates that support for Alberta's United Conservative Party (UCP) is rebounding after a year-long downward trend, with half of Albertans now saying they would vote UCP if an election were held tomorrow. This marks a significant shift in the province's political landscape.
Polling Data Reveals Shifting Political Landscape
The survey, conducted between January 23 and 26, 2026, shows that 50% of Albertans would support the UCP in an immediate election, representing a six percentage point increase from October 2025. This uptick follows a steady decline in UCP support that persisted from January through October of 2025.
Meanwhile, support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) has fallen by two points since October, landing at 37% among poll respondents. This decline comes despite the NDP's previous momentum in the province.
Healthcare Concerns and Leadership Factors Influence Voter Sentiment
Andrew Enns, Leger's executive vice-president for Central Canada, suggests that concerns about Alberta's healthcare system may be contributing to the political shift. Many provincial hospitals have been operating at over 100% capacity, and physicians recently requested the government declare a medical state of emergency.
"It's been fairly acute the past while," Enns noted regarding healthcare concerns among Albertans.
Another potential factor, according to Enns, could be recent criticism directed at NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi regarding Calgary's water main rupture. While the former Calgary mayor faced only brief negative commentary, it may have slightly dampened NDP support among voters.
Provincial Direction and Separatism Concerns
Despite the UCP's rising support, a majority of Albertans (59%) believe the province is headed in the wrong direction, while only 34% are satisfied with the current trajectory. This disconnect between party preference and provincial outlook presents an interesting dynamic in Alberta politics.
The poll also examined attitudes toward separatism, revealing that 71% of respondents believe Alberta should remain part of Canada. Only 18% support Alberta becoming an independent country, while 5% believe the province should join the United States.
Among UCP voters specifically, 52% oppose separating from Canada. However, 58% of all Albertans expressed concern about the separatist movement, indicating this remains a sensitive issue in provincial politics.
Top Issues for Albertans
Healthcare emerged as the top concern among Albertans, with 27% ranking it as the most important issue—a 10% increase from October. Provincial nationalism or separism ranked as most important for 11% of respondents, representing a four percentage point rise.
Enns emphasized that the separatism question will require ongoing monitoring, noting "It's a bit of a challenging issue for the government, when you look at where their supporters break down on preferences for becoming an independent country, or even joining the U.S."
The poll results suggest Alberta's political landscape remains fluid, with healthcare concerns and leadership perceptions potentially influencing voter preferences as the province navigates complex issues around provincial direction and national unity.
