President Donald Trump’s campaign to politically punish Republicans who oppose him moves through Indiana on Tuesday, where seven state senators face Trump-backed primary challengers. The races test Trump’s enduring grip on the party as Republicans grow anxious about the midterm elections in November.
Trump’s Grip on the Republican Party
Trump is targeting seven Republican state senators in Indiana who opposed his plan to redraw congressional district boundaries to help the GOP gain seats in the U.S. House. Groups allied with the president have spent millions on advertising, an extraordinary flood of cash and attention into typically low-profile races. The results will signal to Republicans how big a price they will pay with their voters if they distance themselves from Trump, even as his popularity fades. It will also show whether Trump can still credibly threaten consequences for Republicans who cross him.
The targeted state senators all represent districts Trump carried in 2024, mostly by 20 percentage points or more. The key races to watch are in districts 1, 11, 19, 21, 23, 38, and 41.
Ohio Primaries Heat Up
Ohio’s primary is the wind-up to the main event. Although Ohio has become increasingly conservative, Democrats believe their path back to a U.S. Senate majority runs through the state. They are pinning their hopes on former Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost Ohio’s other Senate seat in 2024. Brown is expected to face Republican Senator Jon Husted, appointed last year to fill the vacancy created when JD Vance became vice president. This special election fills the last two years of Vance’s term.
In the governor’s race, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy has leveraged his national name recognition, tech industry connections, and alliance with Trump into a record fundraising haul. He is largely ignoring rival Casey Putsch, focusing on the general election. Putsch, an engineer and vehicle designer who calls himself “The Car Guy,” attracts fans with provocative YouTube videos that troll Ramaswamy and criticize national Republicans over the Epstein files, data centers, and support for Israel. Amy Acton, Ohio’s former public health director, is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Michigan Special Election
The special election for a state Senate seat in central Michigan carries outsized importance. It is another test of enthusiasm in a series of special elections that have swung almost universally toward Democrats since Trump returned to the White House. A Democratic victory would give the party a firm majority in the state Senate, while a Republican win would deadlock the chamber 19-19. The district is closely matched: Democrat Kamala Harris beat Trump there by less than 1 point in 2024. The seat has been vacant for over a year since Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet resigned to take a seat in Congress. Democrats have shown surprising strength in special elections and off-year contests across the country, winning races in unexpected places and narrowing the gap. While there is no guarantee the trend will continue through the midterms, it has energized Democrats and spooked Republicans worried about keeping their congressional majorities.
