Federal Byelections in Toronto: Liberal Majority Hangs in Balance
With a potential Liberal majority government teetering on the edge, Monday's federal byelections in the Toronto-area ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University—Rosedale are generating significant political intrigue. These contests, set for April 2026, could reshape the balance of power in the House of Commons, as the Liberals aim to secure the seats needed to govern without relying on opposition support.
High-Stakes Seats Up for Grabs
The ridings, traditionally considered safe Liberal strongholds, became vacant earlier this year after two prominent former cabinet ministers departed for international roles. In University—Rosedale, former deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigned on January 9, 2026, to take on an advisory position in Ukraine, assisting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with economic development. Freeland, who has represented the riding since 2015, is also slated to become head of the Rhodes Trust in Oxford, England, this summer.
Meanwhile, Scarborough Southwest is seeking a new Member of Parliament for the first time since 2015, following the resignation of former Toronto Police chief and national defence minister Bill Blair. Blair stepped down less than a month after Freeland to assume the role of Canada's high commissioner to the United Kingdom, concluding an 11-year tenure in the riding.
Path to a Liberal Majority
The Liberals currently hold 171 seats in the House of Commons, thanks in part to recent floor-crossings by four Conservative MPs and former NDP MP Lori Idlout, with Ontario Tory MP Marilyn Gladu being the latest to defect last week. To achieve a majority government, the Liberals need to win just one of the three byelections being contested on Monday—Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, or Terrebonne in Quebec. Securing a majority would enable easier passage of legislation without requiring Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia to break ties.
Candidates in University—Rosedale
The race in University—Rosedale features a diverse slate of candidates from major parties:
- Don Hodgson (Conservatives): A business owner in the mortgage industry, Hodgson advocates for affordability, aiming to reduce the cost of living and increase job opportunities.
- Andrew Massey (Greens): A University of Toronto graduate and former teacher, Massey works on public infrastructure projects in rail transportation and focuses on affordability, accountability, and dignity for all.
- Danielle Martin (Liberals): A physician with two decades in family practice, Martin has served as executive vice-president at Women's College Hospital and led the Department of Family and Community Medicine at the University of Toronto. She holds a master's in public policy and has advised governments on health-care initiatives.
- Serena Purdy (NDP): A health care-focused academic at the University of Toronto and former chair of the Friends of Kensington Market, Purdy advocates for affordable housing and strong short-term rental bylaws.
- Andy D'Andrea (PPC): An engineer with experience in nuclear waste management and reactor safety, D'Andrea has worked at the Pickering Nuclear Station and advocates for transparency and responsible leadership.
Other confirmed candidates include Samuel Baxter (Canadian Future), Leslie Bory (unaffiliated), Raiden DeDominicis (Independent), Imran Khan (Centrist Party), and Bill Whatcott (Independent).
Candidates in Scarborough Southwest
In Scarborough Southwest, the candidates represent a range of backgrounds and priorities:
- Diana Filipova (Conservatives): A first-generation immigrant and middle school teacher, Filipova emphasizes lower taxes, support for the arts, veterans, retirees, and controlled immigration to reduce strain on health care.
- Pooja Malhotra (Greens): A community organizer and medical copywriter with degrees in fashion and costume design, Malhotra has served as the party's critic for immigration and refugee issues, focusing on social, environmental, and human justice.
- Doly Begum (Liberals): The current MPP for the riding since 2018, Begum has switched from the provincial NDP to the federal Liberals. With a master's in development, administration, and planning, she prioritizes affordable housing, public transit, and safer neighbourhoods.
- Fatima Shaban (NDP): A University of Toronto graduate in criminology and socio-legal studies, Shaban works at The Salvation Army and is a member of ACORN, advocating for affordable housing, quality health care, and education as fundamental rights.
- Peter Koubakis (PPC): A body builder and fitness enthusiast who studied politics and governance, Koubakis works in the trades and supports lower taxes, smaller government, and lawful firearms ownership.
Other confirmed candidates include April Francisco (Independent), Lyall Sanders (Centrist), and David Vedova (Christian Heritage).
The outcome of these byelections will not only determine the immediate political landscape but also signal broader trends in voter sentiment ahead of future federal contests. As candidates make their final appeals, all eyes are on Toronto to see if the Liberals can clinch the majority they seek.
