Texas GOP's $60 Million Rescue Effort Fails as Paxton Leads Senate Race, Threatening Party Hold
After seven months and a staggering $60 million spent, Senate Republicans' campaign to rescue one of their caucus' leading members has proven completely ineffective. This failure is driving deep concerns that the party could lose a statewide election in Texas for the first time in three decades, potentially giving Democrats another pathway to claiming a Senate majority.
Despite being massively outspent in the final weeks before the March 3 primary, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading the GOP race to replace longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. The contest is likely to head to a runoff next month, but an underwhelming performance by Cornyn might seal his fate even before that happens. In response, Cornyn is intensifying his attacks against Paxton this week, predicting an electoral bloodbath for the GOP should the ethically challenged, far-right Paxton become the nominee.
Cornyn's Dire Warning and Ethical Appeals
"We will have an Election Day massacre," Cornyn warned at an early voting kickoff event on Tuesday. "Republicans up and down the ticket will pay the price of having an albatross like our corrupt attorney general hung around their neck. If Ken Paxton is at the top of the ticket, we risk losing the Senate seat, losing the majority in the House of Representatives, and it will take a toll on everybody on the ballot."
He added, "Complacency is a killer. Complacency kills relationships, it kills careers, it kills countries, and it kills great political parties, like the Republican Party right here in Texas." The 74-year-old senator, serving his fifth term, is hoping GOP primary voters in Texas will be moved by appeals to ethics and propriety in the age of Trump.
Paxton was impeached in 2023 by the GOP-controlled Texas House for bribery and abuse of office. His wife also divorced him last year on "biblical grounds," including accusations of adultery. However, Trump has stood by the conservative hardliner, dismissing his impeachment as "unfair" and a "disgrace," and even floated him as a possible candidate for U.S. attorney general.
Polling and Financial Struggles
Polls have consistently shown Paxton leading the race, with little evidence that the tens of millions spent by Cornyn's allies have swayed voters. A recent poll from the University of Houston showed Paxton at 38%, Cornyn at 31%, and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%. The poll also indicated Cornyn losing to Paxton by 11 points in a runoff election.
The outcome could reverberate beyond Texas. Operatives in both parties believe Cornyn would be a heavy favorite in November, while Paxton would put GOP control of the seat at risk. Democrats do not see a victory in Texas as a key part of their path to a Senate majority in 2026, but a win there would open up more ways for them to reach the 51 seats required.
Republicans, including super PACs controlled by allies of Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have justified spending $60 million to stop Paxton's campaign, arguing it will save them from having to spend $100 million or more to bail out a weaker candidate in November. However, the spending so far has had little effect and may backfire, as it has allowed Paxton to position himself as an anti-establishment candidate.
Paxton's Campaign and Support Base
Paxton, 63, has done relatively few public events and is not a dynamic speaker, often appearing stiff and awkward on the campaign trail. Yet, conservatives love his record fighting President Barack Obama's administration during his three terms as Texas attorney general and his legal efforts challenging Trump's loss in the 2020 presidential election.
Much of the $60 million has gone towards television ads questioning Paxton's ethics and highlighting his divorce, but his supporters don't seem to care. "I like his ethics," said Molly Deems, a retired teacher. "I think he's very strong. He knows what the Constitution says and that he will do what he says he's going to do." She added, "Divorce should not matter. A man's private life is man's private life. It's what he does when he's in that office."
Internal GOP Divisions and Broader Implications
Hunt, a 43-year-old U.S. Army veteran from Houston, entered the race late last year, angering top Republicans who believe his candidacy will split the primary electorate and ultimately help Paxton win the nomination. Senate Republicans supporting Cornyn worry that an ugly primary in Texas will hurt the GOP's efforts to hold on to his Senate seat and other competitive races nationwide.
"It just means we end up spending a lot more resources that then can't be used in other races, that are really tough races," Sen. John Hoeven told HuffPost. Sen. Thom Tillis complained about a "horrible" decision by Turning Point USA to endorse Paxton, a group popular with Trump supporters.
At Cornyn's campaign event in Austin, he touted his seniority in the Senate and ability to bring billions of dollars home as reasons why Texas can't afford to switch to a new face in Washington. He shrugged off questions about Trump's decision not to endorse him, saying, "The president knows he can trust me to be there to support him and his agenda, and I appreciate that, but it's going to be up to him to make that call."
Randy Hickel, a doctor from Lubbock supporting Cornyn, expressed worry about the direction of his party, particularly if it nominates somebody like Paxton, who has a record of questioning science. "I don't like the anti-science movement that's afoot that denies clear evidence," he said. Former Texas GOP Gov. Rick Perry, speaking in support of Cornyn, said he couldn't even fathom what he would do if Paxton wins the nomination, asking rhetorically, "What are we going to do if aliens come down before the election?"
