California Governor Gavin Newsom is widely expected to launch a campaign for the presidency, but a central question looms: what record will he run on? According to historian Victor Davis Hanson, it is unlikely to be his tenure leading the Golden State, given a litany of economic and social challenges that have intensified during his time in office.
The High Cost of Living in the Golden State
Hanson points to a series of daunting statistics that define the current California experience for many residents. The state contends with the highest gas prices and tax burdens in the continental United States. It also leads in electricity rates, home prices, and ranks fourth for the most expensive home insurance.
This unaffordability is underpinned by significant fiscal issues. California's unfunded liability debt is nearing $270 billion, with annual budget deficits historically swinging between $15 billion and $70 billion. To fund this spending, the state imposes the nation's highest income and sales tax rates. A staggering 50% of the state's income tax is paid by just 1% of households, a dynamic that has contributed to a sustained exodus of affluent and middle-class residents.
A State of Contrasts and Challenges
Beyond economics, Hanson lists several areas where California leads in less desirable metrics. The state is home to the largest populations of illegal aliens and homeless people in the country. It also sees the largest number of people moving away and has the highest number of residents living in poverty.
On healthcare, Newsom recently expanded Medi-Cal coverage to thousands more illegal aliens. This contributes to a system where half of California's 41 million residents are now on Medi-Cal, including 50% of all births. The governor subsequently requested a nearly $3 billion federal bailout for the program.
Infrastructure is often rated near the bottom among states, and California ranks among the five worst for per capita violent crime. Despite being naturally wealthy with vast resources—ranking seventh in U.S. oil reserves and leading in agricultural output—the state's key industries like timber, mining, and oil production have dramatically declined from their former national prominence.
The Political Landscape and Newsom's Platform
Hanson argues that Newsom, having served in state leadership roles for nearly three decades, bears significant responsibility for this trajectory. The result, he contends, is a "medieval state" with a wealthy elite, a mass of poor residents, and a vanishing middle class. This demographic shift, combined with gerrymandering, has solidified one-party Democratic control, with no Republican holding statewide office.
So what will a Newsom presidential campaign highlight? Hanson suggests it will not be concrete achievements like the state's high-speed rail project, which after 17 years and $15 billion has not laid a foot of track. Nor will it be a $500 million solar battery plant that exploded, or a $2 billion desert solar plant boondoggle that has since closed.
Instead, Hanson predicts a campaign of aggressive rhetoric. Newsom will likely continue his "he-man threats" towards political opponents like former President Donald Trump and use provocative language on social media. However, Hanson questions whether such "adolescent potty-mouth smears" and "gobbledygook" about affordability will address the core issues he helped create in California.
The historian concludes by wondering if a strategy focused on extremism and vilification, which has seen success in other Democratic strongholds, could propel Newsom forward, despite the tangible problems defining the state he leads.
