In a significant shift in Canadian political dynamics, the federal Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney has bolstered its advantage over the Conservative opposition, according to recent polling data. The latest survey from Liaison Strategies reveals that the Liberals now command a 12-point lead, up from nine points just a week prior, signaling growing public support as the government navigates internal challenges and external pressures.
Polling Numbers Show Clear Liberal Advantage
The poll, conducted between February 9 and February 21, 2026, among a random sample of 1,000 Canadian adults, indicates that 45% of decided and leaning voters favor the Liberals, compared to 33% for the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives. This margin of error stands at ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20, providing a robust snapshot of current voter sentiment. David Valentin of Liaison Strategies commented, "If an election were held today, the Liberals would win comfortably—assuming they can maintain these numbers through to Election Day."
Factors Driving the Liberal Surge
Several key elements are contributing to the Liberals' strengthened position. The Conservative Party is grappling with another caucus defection and mixed messaging regarding the ongoing American trade war, which has eroded public confidence. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Carney's high-profile speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, earlier this year, where he criticized U.S. trade policies as a "rupture" and warned middle powers about global instability, has garnered widespread praise and attention.
Additionally, increased nationalism in response to former U.S. President Donald Trump's threats, such as annexing Greenland and questioning Canadian sovereignty, continues to play in the Liberals' favor, echoing themes from Carney's recent electoral victory. When asked to assess Carney's performance as Prime Minister, 63% of respondents approved, while 32% disapproved, and 5% were unsure.
Conservative Challenges and Public Perception
The poll also sheds light on public views of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, with 54% holding unfavorable opinions, 37% favorable, 5% unfamiliar, and 4% unsure. This disparity highlights the uphill battle facing the Conservatives as they seek to regain traction ahead of potential electoral contests. Valentin emphasized, "Campaigns matter, and a lot can change—that's why the Liberals may look to lock in a majority sooner through more floor crossings and key by-elections."
Election Rumors and Byelection Dynamics
Rumors of a spring election have been circulating on Parliament Hill, fueled by Carney's rising popularity and the minority Liberals' proximity to a majority government. The party is also preparing for three upcoming byelections to fill vacancies in the House of Commons:
- University-Rosedale, following Chrystia Freeland's resignation.
- Scarborough-southwest, after Bill Blair's departure.
- Terrebonne, where results were annulled due to ballot errors.
While the Liberals are expected to easily secure the two Toronto seats, analysts predict the Bloc Québécois could win in Terrebonne. Valentin noted, "It is fairly clear to me the Toronto by-elections would already be underway were it not for the Terrebonne court decision. My expectation is once the Prime Minister can call all the by-elections, he will do so promptly."
This political landscape underscores a pivotal moment in Canadian politics, with the Liberals capitalizing on strategic advantages and the Conservatives facing significant hurdles as they aim to close the gap in public support.
