In a result that delivered both relief and a stark warning to the Republican Party, combat veteran Matt Van Epps narrowly defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn in a special election for a U.S. House seat in Tennessee. The victory preserves the GOP's razor-thin majority in the chamber but highlights the party's deteriorating political position as it looks toward the 2026 midterm elections.
A Narrow Win in Trump Country
The race for Tennessee's 7th Congressional District became a focal point for national political anxiety. The seat was vacated by the sudden retirement of Republican Rep. Mark Green earlier this year. While former President Donald Trump had carried the district by a commanding 22 percentage points in the 2024 election, internal polling from both parties showed a dramatically tighter contest this time.
Van Epps, a young combat veteran viewed as a competent and scandal-free candidate by both sides, ultimately secured the win. He received endorsements and rally support from Trump and campaigned alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson. However, Trump notably declined to hold a public rally in the district itself.
Democratic opponent Aftyn Behn, a liberal activist turned state lawmaker, drew support from high-profile figures including former Vice President Kamala Harris and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who headlined her closing tele-rally.
Spending, Strategy, and Voter Turnout
The election saw significant, though not record-breaking, financial investment. Republican outside groups, including the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc., spent approximately $3.1 million on advertising. Democratic groups, led by a super PAC controlled by allies of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, spent about $2.3 million.
Democratic ads attacked Van Epps for supporting an unpopular GOP budget bill and opposing the release of the Epstein files. Republican ads capitalized on Behn's activist background, tying her to "defund the police" sentiments and criticizing past social media comments.
Voter participation was unusually high for a special election held between Thanksgiving and Christmas, approaching typical midterm election levels. This high turnout diluted the usual Democratic advantage among high-propensity voters.
Implications for the GOP Majority and 2026
Van Epps's victory provides a minuscule amount of breathing room for Speaker Mike Johnson. The GOP majority in the House will stand at 220-213 once Van Epps is sworn in. However, that margin is almost certain to shrink early next year due to other special elections and the pending retirement of controversial Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, potentially bringing the tally to 219-215.
For Democrats, the close result in such a heavily Republican district was framed as a moral victory and a harbinger of future success. "The fact that Republicans spent millions to protect this Trump +22 district and still lost so much ground should have the GOP shaking in their boots," said Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin.
The race is widely seen as a symbol of the challenges facing the GOP as Trump's popularity suffers and voters grapple with economic concerns. While Republicans remain heavily favored to hold the seat in the November 2026 general election, the dramatic shrinkage of their margin serves as a clear alert about the party's vulnerability in the upcoming midterm cycle.