Electability Hurdle Shadows Jasmine Crockett's Texas Senate Campaign
DALLAS, Texas — A significant obstacle has emerged on Rep. Jasmine Crockett's journey to secure the Democratic Senate nomination in Texas: questions about her electability in a general election. With less than two weeks remaining before the March 3 primary, these concerns have proven difficult to overcome, casting a shadow over her once-promising campaign.
From Frontrunner to Under Scrutiny
When Crockett announced her Senate candidacy on the final possible day in November, she appeared positioned for success. Former Rep. Colin Allred's withdrawal from the race upon her entry offered her an opportunity to consolidate Black voters across the state. Her national reputation as a vocal critic of former President Donald Trump and her proven fundraising abilities suggested she could establish herself as the frontrunner against state Rep. James Talarico.
However, as early voting commences, lingering doubts among voters about Crockett's ability to win in November persist, despite vigorous efforts by her and her allies to counter this narrative. The core of the debate does not revolve around ideology—both candidates align as mainstream liberals—but centers on Crockett's strategy of relying primarily on mobilizing Democratic base voters, particularly Black and Latino communities, to secure victory.
Contrasting Campaign Approaches
In contrast, Talarico frequently incorporates his religious beliefs into his political messaging, a tactic that could resonate with a broader electorate in conservative-leaning Texas. Some Democratic voters express skepticism about Crockett's approach, favoring Talarico's potential to attract evangelical and moderate Republican voters.
"I love Jasmine," said Celinda Martinez, a retiree from Pflugerville, at a Talarico rally. "My concern is, Texas is so red. I feel we have a better opportunity with Talarico because he could draw in the Evangelicals and some of those moderate Republicans."
Talarico's allies have amplified electability concerns, with a super PAC supporting him airing ads labeling Crockett as "Republicans' favorite candidate" due to perceived vulnerabilities in a general election. This notion gains traction from actions by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which reportedly invested in polling to encourage Crockett's candidacy, and conservative commentators who have framed media controversies as attempts to boost Talarico racially.
Financial and Polling Dynamics
The political fracas surrounding Talarico generated $2.5 million in donations within 24 hours, bolstering his existing 4-to-1 television spending advantage over Crockett, according to ad-buying sources. Meanwhile, a pro-Crockett super PAC released a poll showing her defeating Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a leading Republican candidate. Crockett argues that critics misread the electorate, asserting her viability based on data and trends.
"We've done everything based on facts and data," Crockett told HuffPost. "What I did not anticipate was our governor also jumping in and spending money against me right before the primary, almost signaling that while they say they believe I'm the better candidate to win, they're putting their money on trying to keep me from winning."
Republicans appear to prefer facing Crockett, known for her viral attacks on Trump and his administration, especially in a red state like Texas. GOP operatives view Talarico as a more formidable general election opponent, particularly if Paxton secures the Republican nomination over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
Contentious Race and Racial Accusations
Polls of the Democratic primary have been inconsistent, with a University of Houston survey showing Crockett leading by 8 points, while an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll indicated Talarico ahead by 9 points. Other surveys depict a tied race with many undecided voters, reflecting the uncertainty.
The campaign has grown increasingly contentious, with Crockett and her supporters accusing Talarico of racism over a super PAC ad that darkened her skin color. Crockett criticized Talarico for not condemning what she called a "straight up racist" advertisement. Talarico declined to respond directly, urging fact-checking of such allegations.
Further controversy erupted when a Black influencer accused Talarico of calling Allred a "mediocre Black man," prompting Allred, who supports Crockett, to criticize Talarico publicly. Talarico clarified that he described Allred's "method of campaigning as mediocre" during his 2024 Senate loss to Sen. Ted Cruz.
Campaign Strategies and Voter Perceptions
Crockett, a 44-year-old former civil rights attorney, dismisses electability doubts as a "dogwhistle," attributing them to her identity as a Black woman in America. "I wouldn't have gotten in this race if I didn't think that I had a shot beyond all of the additional obstacles," she stated.
Some Democratic operatives question Crockett's campaign decisions, such as her event choices and delayed television ad spending. Her campaign argued that early ads were unnecessary due to her high name recognition, but this strategy shifted as Talarico gained momentum. Reports indicate her campaign lacks a manager and can be opaque, yet supporters argue an unconventional approach is needed.
"She says the quiet part out loud," said Stormy White, a Crockett supporter at a Dallas rally. "You might not like the approach, but she is what we need in Texas right now."
Talarico's Rising Profile
Talarico, a 36-year-old Presbyterian seminarian and former teacher, has gained traction by blending religious language with progressive stances on LGBTQ+ and reproductive rights, drawing comparisons to former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. His populist message criticizes corporate influence and media censorship, resonating with young voters.
At a rally in Austin, Talarico asserted, "These are the same people who ran against cancel culture, and now they're trying to control what we watch. This is the most dangerous kind of cancel culture, the kind that comes from the top." However, his events have attracted predominantly white crowds, highlighting potential challenges in appealing to diverse electorates.
Outreach and Endorsements
Both campaigns are intensifying outreach to Latino voters, a crucial bloc in Texas, amid backlash to Trump's immigration policies. "I think Latino voters on the border are up for grabs," noted a Democratic operative involved in the race. "Both candidates have a lot of room to make up with name ID there. I do think that's where the election is going to be won."
While most Senate Democrats remain neutral, some have endorsed candidates: Sen. Angela Alsobrooks supports Crockett, and Sen. Martin Heinrich backs Talarico. Sen. Chris Coons commented on the race's uncertainty, "There may be a difference between who has an edge in the primary and who is more competitive in a general."
At anti-Trump rallies, attendees like Everett Upshaw, an attorney from Crockett's district, emphasize strategic voting: "I think we need a Senate candidate who can maximize the chances of winning, because we have to break the Republican control before it's too late."
