Political Analyst Larry Elder Challenges Conventional Wisdom on 2026 Midterms
In a provocative column published January 25, 2026, conservative commentator Larry Elder presents a counterintuitive argument about the upcoming midterm elections. Elder contends that despite favorable economic indicators, the electoral outcome will hinge primarily on what he describes as pervasive "Trump hatred" rather than traditional affordability concerns.
The Economic Backdrop: Strong Numbers That Should Favor Republicans
Elder meticulously outlines economic conditions that would typically benefit the incumbent party. Gas prices have reached five-year lows, with some states seeing regular gasoline selling for under $2 per gallon. The stock market has repeatedly achieved record highs since Trump's reelection, while third-quarter 2025 GDP growth registered at an impressive 4.3%.
Additional positive indicators include:
- Wage growth outpacing inflation rates
- Inflation trending below 3% and continuing to decline
- Significant reductions in egg prices
- Mortgage rates dropping to their lowest levels in three years
- Trillions in announced foreign investment commitments
Elder notes that the effects of recent legislation—including tax exemptions for tips and overtime, senior tax relief, and business equipment expensing—have barely begun to register in the economy. "All of this suggests, despite the headlines of despair, that the economy is poised to take off," he writes.
The Central Question: Can Trump Receive Credit for Achievements?
The columnist argues that if voters were genuinely focused on affordability, these economic conditions would prove politically devastating for Democrats. Instead, he posits that the midterms will turn on a single fundamental question: Is opposition to Donald Trump so deeply entrenched that he receives no credit for his administration's accomplishments?
Elder enumerates what he considers significant Trump administration achievements in less than a year:
- Closing the southern border without new congressional legislation
- Negotiating the release of Israeli hostages and remains from Gaza
- Pressuring European allies to increase financial support for Ukraine
- Degrading Iran's nuclear capacity
- Taking decisive action against Venezuela's Maduro regime
- Expanding school-choice options benefiting minority students
- Forcing NATO allies to increase defense spending
- Applying pressure on Iran during internal instability
- Pushing universities to protect Jewish students and end race-based DEI policies
Immigration Enforcement and Statistical Context
On immigration, Elder notes that Trump has deported approximately 1.5 million undocumented immigrants, many with violent criminal records. He contextualizes this figure by comparing it to the 3.5 million deportations under former President Barack Obama and the estimated 10-15 million immigrants admitted during the Biden administration.
The columnist addresses enforcement errors, acknowledging that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has mistakenly detained "more than 170" U.S. citizens according to ProPublica. He calculates this represents just 0.0113% of total deportations under Trump, characterizing such mistakes as "statistically rare" in the context of reversing years of mass illegal entry.
The Metastasis of Trump Derangement Syndrome
Elder concludes with his central thesis: "Trump Derangement Syndrome is real. It is deep. And it has metastasized, not just nationally but globally." He suggests that approximately half the country views Trump through what he calls the "Jimmy Kimmel mindset"—unwilling to ever acknowledge the president's achievements or reconsider their opposition.
The columnist questions whether millions of voters can acknowledge reality or whether their animus toward Trump has become so absolute that "no achievement, no success and no improvement in people's lives really matter." For Elder, this psychological and political dynamic—not traditional economic concerns—represents the true question before the country in the 2026 midterms.
Larry Elder, a bestselling author and nationally syndicated radio talk-show host, presents this analysis as a challenge to conventional political wisdom about what drives electoral outcomes in contemporary American politics.
