AIPAC's Expensive Gamble Stumbles in Heavily Jewish Illinois District
In a striking electoral development, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has invested a massive portion of its political war chest—approximately $20 million—into Democratic congressional primaries across Illinois. However, its strategy appears to be faltering most conspicuously in the state's 9th Congressional District, one of the nation's most densely Jewish constituencies. Here, AIPAC's endorsed candidate, State Senator Laura Fine, is polling a distant third, while the two progressive figures the group has spent millions opposing—Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss and journalist Kat Abughazaleh—emerge as the frontrunners.
The Blueprint for Progressive Resistance
This unexpected dynamic in the 9th District, encompassing Chicago's North Side and northern suburbs, is being hailed by progressives as a potential model for countering AIPAC's influence. The lobby group has aggressively sought to eliminate dissent within the Democratic Party regarding unconditional military aid to Israel. The successful strategy, according to advocates, hinges on voter awareness.
"When voters know about the dark money forces that are paying for the ads that they’re seeing, then progressives win," asserted Representative Greg Cesar of Texas, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which supports Biss. "When voters don’t know, then we lose."
Why the 9th District Is Different
The district's unique demographic profile explains this outcome. It is exceptionally well-educated, with 25% of residents holding graduate degrees and another 37% possessing bachelor's degrees. Its median income approaches $90,000 annually, fostering a robust local media ecosystem. Furthermore, an estimated 10% of the population is Jewish, ranking it among the most Jewish districts outside Florida and the New York metropolitan area.
These factors combine to create an electorate with the time, resources, and inclination to scrutinize the origins of political advertising. Voters have successfully identified the true backers of ads run by vaguely named political action committees like "Elect Chicago Women" and "Chicago Progressive Partnership."
"They are aware of what AIPAC is and what they stand for," said Daniel Biss, a liberal Zionist and grandson of Holocaust survivors. "They don’t agree with their agenda of unconditional military aid for the current Israeli government no matter what they do in Gaza." Internal polling from the Biss campaign indicates AIPAC's favorability rating among likely primary voters is a stark -30.
Contrasting Fortunes Across Illinois
While the 9th District presents a setback for AIPAC, the group's strategy shows signs of effectiveness elsewhere. Its preferred candidates are favored in the 8th District and remain competitive in Chicago's plurality-Black 2nd and 7th Districts. This mixed success underscores the broader challenge for the left, as many of the districts where they hope to compete resemble the 2nd—working-class and diverse—more than the affluent, highly educated 9th.
The struggle is exemplified by State Senator Robert Peters, a progressive candidate in the 2nd District. He faces attacks from super PACs funded by cryptocurrency interests, artificial intelligence companies, and AIPAC, all operating under benign-sounding committee names.
"I find it disgusting and insulting to do that to voters," Peters declared, criticizing the obfuscation of funding sources. "This is a working-class Black district. These are people who might be working two jobs, living paycheck to paycheck... They only have a limited amount of time they can tune in."
AIPAC's Evolving Tactics and Broader Goals
Undeterred, AIPAC-linked strategists have articulated a clear objective: to prevent the election of candidates perceived as potential future members of the progressive "Squad." Their target list includes Peters, Kina Collins, Junaid Ahmed, Yasmeen Bankole, Kat Abughazaleh, and Bushra Amiwala—notably excluding Daniel Biss, despite spending over $1 million against him.
In the 9th District, AIPAC initially focused its efforts on consolidating pro-Israel support behind Laura Fine and launching early attack ads against Biss. As polling showed Biss maintaining strength, the group pivoted to targeting Abughazaleh, resurrecting conservative-leaning articles she wrote as a teenager. The 26-year-old journalist is positioned to Biss's left on Israel-Palestine issues, having described the war in Gaza as a genocide.
In the campaign's final days, AIPAC adopted a new tactic: running ads to boost a third progressive, school board member Bushra Amiwala, in an apparent bid to further split the left-leaning vote.
"They’re panicking because they did the same thing in New Jersey, and they are underestimating just how little the American people want AIPAC to be dictating our politics," Abughazaleh argued. "AIPAC knows that it’s unpopular because they’re hiding who they are from the American people."
This Illinois primary battle unfolds against a backdrop of shifting Democratic Party sentiment. A recent NBC poll found only 13% of Democrats hold a positive view of Israel, a dramatic decline from 34% in 2023. Yet, AIPAC's method of deploying generically named super PACs and focusing attack ads on non-Israel issues has proven effective in districts from St. Louis to Michigan. The outcome in the 9th District, however, suggests that in constituencies where voters are equipped to decode dark money politics, the lobby's influence can be significantly blunted.
