As 2025 draws to a close, a single, stark lesson emerges from a year of political and social turbulence across Canada: nothing can be taken for granted. Democratic norms, political certainties, and even basic public services were all thrown into question, reshaping the national landscape in unexpected ways.
A Political Earthquake: From Trudeau to Carney
The year began with a set of assumptions that quickly crumbled. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals, facing bleak polls in late 2024, seemed destined for a severe electoral defeat. Meanwhile, Canada braced for the January inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose threats to annex Canada and impose punitive tariffs initially felt like distant rhetoric.
Trump's aggressive posture, however, ignited a surge of Canadian nationalism. This wave fundamentally altered the federal political scene. Trudeau announced his departure early in the year, triggering a rapid Liberal leadership race. Former central banker Mark Carney emerged as the overwhelming choice, leveraging his economic credentials and a "plan beats no plan" message to harness the public mood.
Carney's campaign, filled with hockey metaphors and appeals to national pride, propelled him to a minority government victory. The surge in pro-Canada sentiment was notably strong in Quebec, where crowds at Montreal's Bell Centre famously booed the American anthem. This loyalty persisted even as the Parti Québécois maintained a strong lead in provincial polls.
The dramatic shift left Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as a major casualty. His once-commanding poll lead evaporated as his style drew unfavorable comparisons to Trump's. Poilievre not only lost the election but was defeated in his own riding, forcing him to seek a new seat in a byelection.
Montreal's Surprise and Quebec's Struggles
The danger of political assumptions also played out in Montreal's municipal election. With Mayor Valérie Plante having announced her departure in late 2024, her Projet Montréal party appeared set for a third term under new leader Luc Rabouin. The opposition Ensemble Montréal was in visible disarray.
Enter Soraya Martinez Ferrada, a former federal cabinet minister. After being acclaimed as Ensemble's leader, she built a platform focused on housing and homelessness, tapping into a public desire for change. Despite a large bloc of undecided voters, Martinez Ferrada steadily gained ground, ultimately defeating Rabouin to become Montreal's second female mayor and the first of Chilean origin.
In Quebec City, Premier François Legault's government faced profound crises. The introduction of Bill 2, a special law to impose a new compensation model on physicians, sparked outrage. Doctors warned of clinic closures and considered leaving the province. The backlash cost Legault his ally, Health Minister Christian Dubé, who resigned from cabinet. Although Legault walked back the law's most objectionable parts, the healthcare system was left deeply wounded.
Legault's political fortunes further wobbled as he testified at the Gallant Commission, investigating the botched, over-budget SAAQclic IT upgrade scandal. His government also advanced controversial identity legislation, extending bans on religious symbols to all school staff and daycare workers, and tabled a proposed Quebec constitution criticized for concentrating power and weakening minority rights.
Transit Turmoil and Climate Trade-offs
Montrealers learned repeatedly that essential services are not guaranteed. The new REM commuter line faced unexpected breakdowns and planned service interruptions. More disruptive were rotating strikes at the STM in June and again in the fall, which halted or drastically reduced bus and metro service. Mayor-elect Martinez Ferrada's first task included urging unions and management back to the table, with another strike threatened for January 2026.
On the federal stage, Carney's political calculations led to a rollback of climate policies. To neutralize Poilievre's attacks, Carney abandoned the carbon tax. His government also paused zero-emission vehicle quotas and set aside an emissions cap on the oil and gas sector, aiming to build economic sovereignty through pipelines and reduced U.S. dependence. These reversals pushed Steven Guilbeault, Carney's own Quebec lieutenant and a former environment minister, to resign from cabinet in protest.
A Year-End of Unsettled Scores
As December arrived, political instability continued. Quebec Liberal Leader Pablo Rodriguez, only chosen in June, resigned in December amid controversy over election financing. His party must now restart its search for a leader on the eve of an election year.
The collective experience of 2025 serves as a powerful reminder. From the threats to democracy emanating from the U.S. and within Quebec, to the fragility of transit and healthcare, to the stunning reversal of political fortunes, the year proved that certainty is an illusion. As the country looks to 2026, the prevailing wisdom is clear: expect the unexpected.
