As 2025 concludes, the season of reflection turns not only to personal goals but to a pressing global question: how can the world most effectively assist its poorest citizens? According to prominent author and think-tank president Bjorn Lomborg, the current approach is failing, and a radical shift toward cost-effective, evidence-based priorities is urgently needed for 2026.
The Broken Promise of UN Development Goals
The United Nations' ambitious blueprint for global improvement, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), is effectively dead, Lomborg asserts. Launched a decade ago with the promise to eradicate poverty, hunger, disease, and more by 2030, the initiative has spread resources too thinly. The 2025 progress report delivered a stark verdict: only 18 per cent of its 169 targets are on track, with a third stalled or regressing.
Critical issues like global learning poverty persist, with over half of 10-year-olds in low-income nations unable to read a simple sentence. While global hunger saw a slight decline, child stunting in Africa has crept upward. These challenges were overshadowed in 2025 by geopolitical crises, from the war in Ukraine to conflicts in the Middle East and Sudan, which displaced millions and drove up food costs.
A Perfect Storm of Fiscal Constraint
The capacity for rich nations to help is sharply diminishing. Facing their own inflation, deficits, and security threats, donor countries have slashed foreign aid. Following a nine per cent cut in 2024, budgets are projected to fall another nine to 17 per cent this year. Aid dedicated to the world's poorest nations could be reduced by a quarter.
Compounding the problem, Lomborg points out that major development organizations now divert over US$85 billion in aid toward climate-related projects, which he characterizes as "virtue-signalling," thereby starving funding for foundational needs like health and education. The sobering reality for 2026 is that resources for global good will be even scarcer, making strategic allocation paramount.
A Blueprint for High-Impact Spending
In response to this fiscal crunch, Lomborg's think-tank, the Copenhagen Consensus, offers a data-driven alternative. For years, it has collaborated with over 100 top economists and several Nobel laureates to identify where each scarce dollar can achieve the most good. Their peer-reviewed research, published with Cambridge University Press, highlights a dozen specific policies with extraordinary returns on investment.
The proposed portfolio of 12 projects would cost approximately US$35 billion—a fraction of the estimated $10 trillion being spent on the UN's broad SDGs. Lomborg argues this targeted approach could deliver far more tangible benefits.
A prime example is investment in early-life nutrition. Despite progress, over eight per cent of the global population remains undernourished. Research indicates that providing multiple micronutrient supplements to pregnant mothers for about US$2.50 can prevent stunting and cognitive damage in children. This intervention yields an estimated $40 in lifetime economic benefits for every dollar spent, a return that dwarfs most contemporary development policies.
The central thesis is clear: in an era of constrained budgets and competing crises, the world can no longer afford to pretend it can do everything. By focusing on a shortlist of highly efficient, evidence-backed interventions, global aid in 2026 could achieve transformative impact without the trillion-dollar price tag of failing comprehensive frameworks.
