Israel's Buffer Zone Strategy Signals Shift to 'Forever War' Amid Regional Tensions
JERUSALEM – Even as the United States and Iran work to cement a ceasefire agreement, Israel is aggressively seizing more territory from its neighbors in preparation for what appears to be a long, drawn-out conflict across the Middle East. The creation of "buffer zones" in Gaza, Syria, and now Lebanon marks a profound strategic shift following the attacks of October 7, 2023, placing the country in a semi-permanent state of war, according to six Israeli military and defense officials who spoke to Reuters.
A New Security Doctrine Emerges
This approach acknowledges a stark reality that has become increasingly clear after two-and-a-half years of conflict: Iran's clerical leadership, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and various militias across the region cannot be eliminated outright. "Israel's leaders have concluded that they are in a forever war against adversaries who have to be intimidated and even dispersed," said Nathan Brown of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The U.S. and Iran agreed on Wednesday to a pause in fighting while negotiating a broader end to the war that erupted on February 28. Israel has agreed to halt attacks on Iran but insists it will not stop its campaign against Iranian-backed Hezbollah. Hezbollah joined the war on March 2 by firing rockets at Israel, prompting a ground invasion of southern Lebanon to clear a buffer zone extending up to the Litani River—a broad swathe constituting about 8% of Lebanese territory.
Destruction and Displacement in Lebanon
Israel has ordered hundreds of thousands of residents to flee the area and is in the early stages of destroying homes in Shi'ite Muslim villages suspected of being used by Hezbollah to store weapons or stage attacks. A senior military official, speaking anonymously on security matters, stated the aim is to "clear" an area stretching 5-10 km beyond the border, putting Israeli border towns out of range of Hezbollah rocket-propelled grenade fire.
In some Lebanese villages near the border, Israeli troops found evidence linking nearly 90% of homes to weapons or Hezbollah equipment, according to the official. These homes are now viewed as enemy military positions that must be destroyed, especially as many southern Lebanese villages sit on hilltops with direct lines of sight into Israeli towns or army positions.
Strategic Implications and Historical Context
The use of buffer zones represents a new security doctrine where "border communities cannot be protected from the border," according to Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli brigadier general and former head of military strategy. "Israel no longer waits for the attack to come. It sees an emerging threat and it attacks it preemptively," he added.
Once the buffer against Hezbollah is secured, Israel will have seized or occupied territory in Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip, where it retains control over half the territory after an October ceasefire with Hamas. Under that ceasefire, Israel is meant to withdraw from all of Gaza as Hamas disarms, but the likelihood of this happening soon appears slim.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized this strategy in a March 31 video message: "We have established security belts deep beyond our borders. In Gaza—more than half of the Strip's territory. In Syria, from the Mount Hermon summit until the Yarmuch River. In Lebanon—a vast buffer zone that thwarts the threat of invasion and keeps anti-tank fire a distance away from our communities."
Political and Legal Controversies
The Lebanese buffer zone plan has yet to be presented to Netanyahu's cabinet, according to a cabinet member and two officials. Meanwhile, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz likened the devastation in southern Lebanon to the scorched-earth policy used against Hamas in Gaza, stating, "The village homes adjacent to the border, which serve as Hezbollah outposts for all intents and purposes, will be destroyed according to the Rafah and Khan Younis model in Gaza, to remove the threat from Israeli towns."
Eran Shamir-Borer, an international law expert at the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that the destruction of civilian property is largely unlawful, with exceptions only if the property is used for military purposes. "Sweeping destruction of houses in southern Lebanon that is not based on individual analysis would be unlawful," he added.
Public Skepticism and Long-Term Strain
Israeli leaders' preference for buffer zones follows decades of failed attempts to secure long-term peace agreements with Palestinians, Lebanon, and Syria. The Israeli public remains deeply skeptical of negotiated peace deals. A 2025 Pew Research Center poll found only 21% of Israelis believe Israel and a potential Palestinian state could coexist peacefully, while a poll from the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies showed just 26% expected the October ceasefire in Gaza to lead to prolonged calm.
Ofer Shelah, a research program director at the institute, argued that in the absence of a negotiated peace settlement with Lebanon, a buffer zone in the north could prevent attacks or ground incursions by Hezbollah. However, he warned that patrolling fronts across Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and the occupied West Bank would eventually strain military resources. "We would be better off eventually going back to the international border and maintaining mobile active defenses beyond the border, without having outposts there," Shelah concluded.
