Like it or not, we are now in the most important political campaign in Alberta’s history. Amid all the hysterics of politicians and commentators, what follows attempts to put our feet back on the ground.
First, it is hard to understand the discontent with the separation referendum question. Surely, the “stay” followers of Thomas Lukaszuk must be happy as the first part of the “or” question is exactly his referendum wording. And the second part of the question actually gives further life to what would otherwise be a dead-in-the-water “leave” side, since polling consistently shows 70/30 for “stay.”
Bringing us to the second critical point: Nobody believes the polling numbers. The “stay” side would not be going apoplectic if they believed their 40-point lead will hold. And the secessionists know they will gain ground slowly by providing good arguments and information.
Polling companies could help by being a bit more discerning as to who gets to participate. Fully 40 per cent of eligible registered voters (likely less than 80 per cent of the adult population) don’t even bother to vote. Yet, somehow, their opinion is a valid prediction of a vote outcome? Better to screen respondents with “Did you vote in the last provincial election?”, or better yet, “Did you vote in the last provincial referendum?” No wonder polls have never been wrong, except, of course, Brexit, Hillary Clinton beating Trump, and most importantly, Pierre Poilievre winning a majority.
The Referendum Question
To review, Smith’s question reads, “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
The most important aspect is that this is not a yes/no stay/go succession question. And yet, headline after headline calls it a “separation” referendum. The second most important part of the question is that it acknowledges that Canada allows provinces to leave confederation. It seems that Smith would like Albertans to become acquainted with this; and, perhaps the Supreme Court of Canada’s views on the matter in the Quebec Succession Reference; and, maybe even the federal government’s Clarity Act as well.
Populist Movement or Malcontents?
Regarding those advocating to leave, is it really a legitimate populist movement or just a bunch of malcontents whining about imagined grievances? All the federalists acknowledge Alberta’s “legitimate issues” and then list several “buts” hoping one of them will suffice. Most Alberta die-hard federalists don’t even need a “but”; they just accept the heavy price for Alberta to be in Canada. Why would Canada negotiate, given this level of blind acceptance? The federalists should provide a robust way forward to address the grievances. Instead, they preach fear.
When it comes to the fall referendum vote in Alberta, there's a risk that average voters won't turn out to vote or will boycott the vote. The real danger is that the constant political rhetoric from both sides will cause voters to tune out entirely, undermining the democratic process.
