Liana Shaw walks her dogs Stan and Poppy on a chilly morning in Prince's Island Park, Calgary on Sunday, October 12, 2025. Photo by Brent Calver /Postmedia
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The majority of Canadian and American women under age 40 do not yet have children, signalling a broad shift in when and whether people are choosing to have families. Both countries now face a deepening fertility crisis. For Canada, it’s stark, with the country hitting a record-low fertility rate of 1.25 children per woman in 2024, putting it on the ultra-low fertility list — below 1.30 — alongside Japan, Singapore and Spain. The American fertility rate isn’t as low, but it just dipped to a new record: 1.6 children per woman.
“The biggest decline we see in fertility is actually not of third births or second births,” says Lyman Stone, a demographer with the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies. “It’s the first births.” Canada and the U.S. are far from alone — most wealthy Western countries have seen fertility rates decline since the 1970s. But it does mean the West is not producing children near the replacement level for a modern society, which relies on young workers to cover the costs of older generations. Researchers point to various causes, and some disagree about policy solutions, but they all agree that while the U.S. and Canada want more babies, neither government is doing what needs to be done to boost fertility.
Housing and Other Costs Top Concerns
“Canada’s housing situation is among the worst in the world,” said Stone, referring to the lack of family-friendly units. The average Canadian single-family home sold for $738,800 in March — over 50 per cent higher than 10 years ago. “The cost of housing and rent, which went up quite noticeably over the last number of years,” said Don Kerr, a demographer from King’s University College at Western University, “is certainly going to have an impact on young folks trying to decide whether they want to establish a family.” Rachel Margolis, a sociology professor at Western University, called housing the “biggest cost of having kids.”
But it’s by no means the only one. High child care fees and the overall cost of living are also key deterrents. “Child care costs that are very expensive in the U.S. are also impacting people’s decision-making,” said Laura Drew, lecturer at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Health.
Cultural Shifts and Delayed Childbearing
Demographers also point to changing cultural norms, with women working more and delaying reproduction. “The average age at first birth now in Canada is over 31,” said Kerr, noting the delays suggest that “people are having difficulty establishing relationships that they’re comfortable with … for longer-term commitments in terms of family life.” But “fertility postponed is fertility forgone,” Margolis said, noting that many women face fertility issues as they reach their late thirties and early forties.
Government Policies Falling Short
So what can be done? Some academics say the decline is inevitable and that governments can only slow it down. “I haven’t really heard the federal government say that they’re targeting this low birth rate,” said Kerr, noting how the Trudeau-era child-care subsidies didn’t help. “They even tried the baby bonus in Quebec,” he said, “with little success,” referring to a program abandoned in the 1990s that paid incentives for babies but was costly. Canada offers family supports like tax-free child benefits and 18 months parental leave, while the U.S. relies on its $2,000 Child Tax Credit and the new $1,000 “Trump Account” baby bonus — but neither offers comprehensive aid.
