Calgary's Healthcare System Strained by Population Boom, Experts Warn
Calgary's healthcare system is under immense pressure as rapid population growth strains resources, with acute care beds per 1,000 people plummeting from 2.05 in 2017 to 1.59 last year. This alarming decline highlights the challenges in meeting the demands of a city projected to reach two million residents within the next decade. Our weekly Countdown to 2 Million series continues to explore these critical issues.
International Physicians Face Barriers to Practice
Fahima Mustanzid, an international physician from Bangladesh who moved to Calgary in 2013, dreams of practicing psychiatric or family medicine in the city. However, she has encountered a frustrating and lengthy path to qualification, requiring multiple trips back to Bangladesh for credentials. Mustanzid, 38, expressed frustration with rapidly changing rules and the difficulty of raising her two young sons while pursuing her medical career.
Despite these obstacles, she remains determined, engaging in new studies and exams to secure a medical residency in Calgary. Her interim work as a clinic assistant has shown her the dire need for more physicians, as patients struggle to access emergency care. "I've seen the huge suffering of patients at the clinic, seeing people who couldn't get into emergency—it's very frustrating how people are struggling," said Mustanzid. "We're a big resource Canada could benefit from."
Deidre Lake, executive director of the Alberta International Medical Graduates Association, noted that Alberta has 1,200 international physicians out of 3,700 nationwide, representing a significant talent pool. "Some barriers are being removed but in some places, barriers are being put in place to make it more difficult," she said.
Historical Cuts and Current Shortfalls
Dr. Raj Sherman, an Edmonton-area emergency room physician and former Alberta associate health minister, pointed to historical cuts in the 1990s under Premier Ralph Klein, which reduced healthcare spending and slashed the number of nurses and doctors by 20%. Hospital closures, including the Grace and Holy Cross Hospitals in Calgary, exacerbated the issue. "That's when health care got broken—other provinces have had challenges but Alberta did it the worst," said Sherman.
He highlighted that Alberta now has staff for four million people but a population of five million, with acute care beds dropping from 11,700 in the early 1990s to 8,800 today. The bed-per-patient ratio has fallen from 4.3 beds per thousand people to 2.4 beds. In Calgary, acute care beds per 1,000 people have decreased from 2.05 in 2017 to 1.59 last year, with the city's population more than doubling since 1994.
Sherman emphasized the need for a shift towards home and primary care, citing a Danish model with an acute care bed ratio of 2.4 per 1,000 people. For Calgary to reach two million residents, ideally, it would need 4,800 acute care beds, but staffing remains a critical challenge. "We're playing catch-up," he said.
Aging Population and Future Projections
Dr. Max Jajszczok, an adjunct assistant professor at the University of Calgary's Cumming School of Medicine, warned that Alberta's aging and growing population will strain the healthcare system more than other jurisdictions. The number of seniors in Calgary is projected to increase from 268,000 this year to 371,000 by 2036 and 483,000 by 2046, with those aged 85 and over jumping from 25,000 to 44,000 in the next decade.
"Where the constraints will be is in specialty services, registered nurses, and emergency departments—it's going to be a tough change," said Jajszczok. He advocated for increased community and home-based care, supporting family caregivers with tax breaks and employer leniency. "Home care needs to continue to grow at a rate much faster than the rest of the health system, this is the best way to support aging at home."
Alberta Health Services forecasts that family physician numbers in the Calgary zone will grow by 43% by 2033, with elder care specialists being the largest cohort. Specialist physician recruitment is expected to reach 1,500 by 2033, including 578 new positions. However, Dr. Braden Manns, a healthcare economist at the University of Calgary, stressed the need for team-based care and AI integration for triage to address understaffing. "We need a comprehensive plan in what our needs will be in 10 years," he said.
Government Initiatives and Nursing Shortages
The UCP government has announced an Acute Care Action Plan to add 1,100 acute care beds in Edmonton and Calgary, with 400 at the South Calgary Health Campus, though no timeline has been provided. Additionally, $450 million is committed to recruiting and training doctors, part of a $7.7 billion spending package. Kyle Warner, spokesman for the Hospital and Surgical Health Services Ministry, stated that a 50-year capital and workforce strategy aims to meet current and future needs.
In nursing, Bow Valley College is expanding programs to address a projected shortage of 13,841 registered and psychiatric nurses by 2033. Dr. James Reddy Kakulavaram, dean of health sciences, noted a 10% increase in nursing enrollment and plans to grow student numbers from 2,500 to 11,000 by 2035-2036. Virtual simulators are being used to fill 30% of clinical hours, accelerating workforce entry.
Prof. Joseph Osuji of Mount Royal University's School of Nursing and Midwifery expressed concern over funding cuts, with nursing seats set to decrease from an expanded number back to 215. "We would like more support," he said, highlighting the need to train 400-500 nursing students annually.
Cancer Care and Systemic Reforms
At the Arthur J.E. Child Comprehensive Cancer Centre, medical director Dr. Don Morris admitted nervousness about meeting the needs of a larger Calgary. Patient demand has surged since the center's opening in 2024, with inpatient beds at 105% capacity. "We've tried to stay on top of that but the migration to the Calgary catchment area was a bit of a shock," said Morris.
Nanette Gretton, a breast cancer patient, praised the center but noted rushed consultations and potential staffing issues. "I guess they're doing their best—maybe they just don't have enough staff," she said.
Dr. Catherine Macneil, president of the Calgary and Area Medical Staff Society, warned that provincial healthcare reforms, including increased privatization and new ministries, add uncertainty. "I worry whether the restructuring is going to help the coordinated approach," she said, emphasizing the need for a medical home model and preventative care.
As Calgary approaches two million residents, experts agree that without significant investments in infrastructure, staffing, and innovative care models, the healthcare system will struggle to keep pace with growing demands.
