It has been just over a year since the 2025 federal election, which served as a catalyst for the separatist movement and debate that now dominates Alberta politics. However, credible polling indicates that public opinion has remained relatively unchanged over the past 12 months, with support for separation holding steady at levels seen after the Liberal victory.
The voters list data breach scandal may prove detrimental to the separatist cause, but it is difficult to envision what could shift the tide in the opposite direction. The best hope for a resurgence in separatist sentiment would be a major misstep by the federal government.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has shown a greater understanding of this dynamic than his predecessor, but there is an urgent need to move beyond mere rhetoric. Since taking office, Carney has spoken positively about the importance of building major projects and expediting processes, yet tangible evidence of progress remains scarce.
The memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Alberta and Ottawa is a key element. Separatists reacted unfavorably when the agreement was announced, as the projects envisioned would validate the constructive federalism Carney advocates. Advancing a major pipeline project would deal a significant blow to the Alberta separatist movement.
However, missed deadlines and growing uncertainty around the MOU have allowed skeptics to argue that it is merely words on paper, reinforcing the perception that Canada is a jurisdiction where big projects and investments are too difficult to realize.
This issue extends beyond influencing political sentiment in Alberta. It is about maximizing Canada's economic advantages and diversifying export markets, which serves a national interest. Progress on major resource projects is essential for the country's economic future.
Finally, late last week, positive signs emerged that things are moving in the right direction. Following her meeting with Carney on Friday, Premier Danielle Smith reported "significant progress" toward an agreement on a West Coast pipeline and carbon pricing. A pipeline project is expected to be submitted to the Major Projects Office next month.
One of the challenges has been reaching an agreement on the pace of increases in the industrial carbon price, despite consensus on the final target. Ottawa must show flexibility and prioritize advancing this agreement and building these projects.
