A new study by researchers at the University of Toronto suggests that the decline in Canadian visitors to the United States is even more significant than previously estimated. The research, led by Professor Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities, tracked cellphone data of Canadians crossing the border year-over-year since President Donald Trump initiated a trade war and made remarks about Canada becoming the 51st state.
Key Findings on Canadian Travel Decline
The study found approximately a 42% drop in visits to U.S. metropolitan areas, substantially higher than the roughly 25% decline officially recorded by Statistics Canada. The researchers analyzed data from 266 metropolitan areas and discovered that all but two experienced a decrease in Canadian visitors.
Sunny Destinations Hit Hardest
Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, saw the largest drop, with a 65.4% reduction in Canadian visits. Other popular warm-weather destinations in the top five include Yuma, Arizona; Panama City, Florida; Brownsville, Texas; and Orlando, Florida. Florida dominates the list, with nine of the top 20 destinations for Canadians seeking warmer weather experiencing significant declines.
“Consistent with media reporting, our data shows significant declines in snowbird destinations like Florida; border-region cities in states like New York, New Hampshire and Vermont; major tourist destinations like Las Vegas and Disney World; and winter recreation areas,” the authors stated.
Business Travel Also Affected
The researchers noted that border crossing estimates do not fully capture reductions in business and trade-related travel. “High-tech and financial centres like San Francisco and Houston appear to be experiencing reductions not only in tourists but also in business-related travel, reflecting changing travel preferences due to broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border,” they wrote.
Grand Rapids, Michigan, an important automotive sector area affected by supply chain issues due to tariffs, experienced the second largest drop in Canadian visitation.
Reasons for Discrepancy with Official Data
The study explains that cellphone data includes freight traffic, which was higher in early 2025 due to increased trade of goods ahead of anticipated tariffs. Additionally, the data measures Canadians living temporarily in the U.S., suggesting that the decrease may partly reflect return migration to Canada.
Exceptions to the Trend
Only two metropolitan areas saw an increase in Canadian visits: Gainesville, Florida, and Cleveland, both with more than a 30% rise. The reasons for these increases are not specified in the study.
Context of Trade War and Annexation Threats
Since Trump’s trade war and threats of annexation during his second term, many Canadians have boycotted American goods and travel. In response, tourism leaders in popular U.S. destinations such as Las Vegas have launched advertising campaigns offering at-par dollar deals and other discounts to lure Canadians back. Florida tourism officials have also sought to boost Canadian travel amidst the backlash.
“We’re doing what we can, just as we are with any country outside the United States, to make sure that visitation remains strong,” Visit Florida president and CEO Bryan Griffin said in February, as reported by CBS News.
