A new report from Toronto Metropolitan University reveals that Toronto's population growth has undergone a dramatic reversal, plummeting from the fastest-growing metropolitan area in North America in 2024 to 443rd place in 2025. The study, published by TMU's Centre for Urban Research and Land Development, attributes the sharp decline primarily to residents fleeing the city due to the high cost of living, rather than a drop in immigration alone.
Population Growth Rankings Collapse
According to the report, Toronto ranked 443rd out of 471 metropolitan areas across the United States and Canada for population growth in the 12 months ending July 1, 2025. This marks a stunning fall from first place in 2024, when record immigration drove a population surge. The data, sourced from Statistics Canada and the U.S. Census Bureau, shows that while Toronto still attracted strong international migration—ranking fifth among large North American cities behind New York, Miami, Houston, and Dallas—it lost residents to other parts of Canada at a very high rate, resulting in negative net domestic migration.
“Toronto ranked 443rd out of 471 metropolitan areas, after ranking first in 2024 during a year of record population growth caused by a tidal wave of immigration,” the report states. The centre did not respond to a request for comment from the Toronto Sun.
High Cost of Living Blamed
The report's authors explicitly blame Toronto's population slowdown on the city's unaffordable housing market. “Toronto’s sharp population slowdown reflects a combination of factors, including a reduction in immigration. However, the city’s rank among other North American cities reflects sharp trends in out-migration of its existing population,” the report says. It adds that “increasingly unaffordable housing appears to be pushing many residents to other parts of Canada.” The outflow appears to have barely exceeded the combined number of births and new immigrants in 2025.
The findings have political implications. Brad Bradford, a mayoral candidate and front-runner according to polls, echoed the report's conclusions. “Toronto is losing a competitive battle to cities across North America because we’ve made it too expensive to live here,” Bradford said in a statement to the Sun. “While city hall has been raising taxes and creating more congestion, other cities are pulling ahead, actively attracting the young families and workers Toronto should be winning. Under Mayor Chow’s leadership, we are watching talent, investment and opportunity leave because the cost of living in Toronto is too high.” The campaign office of incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow, who is seeking another term, ignored a request for comment.
Canadian Cities Fall Across the Board
Toronto is not alone in its decline. Other major Canadian metros also saw their rankings tumble, though not as severely. Montreal dropped from fifth in 2024 to 25th in 2025, while Vancouver fell from sixth to 92nd. The report highlights that no Canadian metropolitan area made the top 10 for net domestic migration; that list is dominated entirely by warm-weather U.S. cities, with Charlotte, North Carolina, ranked first. The fastest-growing metros overall for 2025 were Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta, while Calgary and Edmonton placed seventh and eighth, respectively.
The report concludes that while Canada's immigration totals fell in 2025, Toronto's population decline is driven by domestic out-migration, as residents seek more affordable options elsewhere. The data underscores a broader trend of Canadians moving to sunbelt U.S. cities, leaving Toronto struggling to retain its population.
