Canmore Real Estate Market Shows Mixed Signals: Slower Sales But Persistent Price Growth
While real estate transactions have softened in the picturesque mountain community of Canmore, Alberta, housing costs in this already premium market are projected to become even less affordable throughout the year, according to local realtors. Despite a noticeable cooling in sales activity and downward revisions to price forecasts, the fundamental demand for property in this Canadian Rockies destination continues to exert upward pressure on values.
Revised Forecasts and Market Realities
A recent analysis by Royal LePage indicates that price increases for single detached homes in Canmore will moderate to approximately 1.5 percent in 2026. This represents a significant deceleration from the 9.5 percent growth recorded during the first nine months of the previous year. However, industry professionals caution against interpreting this slowdown as an indication of impending price stabilization or decline.
Brad Hawker, an associate broker with Royal LePage Solutions, explains that the more modest growth projection is largely influenced by reduced activity in the luxury segment, particularly properties priced between $2 million and $4 million. "There'll be more homes sold in the more affordable end... it's not going to bring prices down," Hawker emphasized, noting that sustained demand at lower price points will continue to support overall market values.
Geopolitical Influences and Buyer Sentiment
Market observers point to several factors contributing to current buyer hesitation, including geopolitical uncertainties emanating from the United States. Hawker noted that "the uncertainty of what our neighbours to the south have been doing, particularly in the six or seven months, has created some uneasiness for some buyers." He described the political climate as generating "ridiculousness" that "just seems to magnify week by week, day by day."
Paradoxically, this same uncertainty appears to be driving increased interest from American prospective buyers inquiring about Canmore properties. This interest may be anticipating the expiration of Canada's three-year federal ban on foreign real estate purchases, which is scheduled to conclude within the coming year. "They're saying 'get me out of here (the U.S.),'" Hawker reported regarding these inquiries.
Sustained Domestic Demand and Market Fundamentals
Canadian buyers, particularly those from Alberta's larger urban centers, remain largely undeterred by international turbulence, viewing communities like Canmore as secure havens. This persistent domestic demand has been sufficient to maintain sales momentum that has propelled the median price for a single detached home in Canmore to $1,861,000. Additional interest continues to emerge from prospective buyers in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, further diversifying the buyer pool.
Municipal Policy Impacts
Meanwhile, Canmore's recently implemented livability tax, which took effect on January 1, represents another layer in the community's housing landscape. Approved by town council in 2024, this levy targets owners or renters who reside in the town for fewer than 183 days annually, with at least 60 of those days being continuous. The policy increases the average annual municipal tax payment from approximately $2,100 to $6,300 for affected property owners.
Proponents argue that this measure will encourage more full-time residency while generating an estimated $10.5 million annually dedicated to affordable housing initiatives. Hawker characterized the financial impact for most homeowners as "more of a rounding error," suggesting it is unlikely to significantly alter broader market dynamics.
The Canmore real estate market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience despite broader economic headwinds and policy interventions. While sales velocity has undeniably moderated and forecasts have been adjusted downward, the fundamental appeal of this mountain community, combined with sustained demand across multiple buyer segments, suggests that affordability challenges will persist even as transaction volumes fluctuate.
