BHP Group Ltd., the world's largest mining company, finds itself in an unexpected position: watching from the sidelines as a wave of mergers and acquisitions sweeps through the copper sector—a frenzy it helped initiate. The Australian giant's bold but unsuccessful attempt to acquire rival Anglo American PLC in 2024 has set off a chain reaction, leaving its major competitors poised to form alliances that could eclipse its own market dominance.
The Catalyst: A Failed Bid That Reshaped the Industry
In 2024, BHP launched a takeover bid for Anglo American, aiming to secure a commanding lead in the copper market it had long forecast would boom. The deal, however, collapsed after BHP insisted Anglo spin off its South African operations. This failure inadvertently created the conditions for its rivals to consolidate. By late 2025, Anglo American had agreed to merge with Canada's Teck Resources Ltd., a deal that BHP made a last-minute, half-hearted attempt to disrupt, confusing investors about its strategic direction.
Today, the copper market is indeed experiencing the boom BHP predicted. Following a restructuring similar to what BHP had proposed, Anglo American's value has soared to approximately US$52 billion—surpassing the offer BHP walked away from two years prior.
A New Threat Emerges: Rio Tinto and Glencore in Talks
The stakes have been raised dramatically with the news that mining heavyweights Rio Tinto PLC and Glencore PLC are in advanced discussions about a potential combination. A deal of this magnitude would almost certainly create the world's most valuable mining company, leapfrogging BHP. According to people familiar with BHP's thinking, this development has caused significant consternation within the company's leadership.
"If Rio combines with Glencore, and you've already got Anglo and Teck in play, BHP risks being left behind," said Iain Pyle, a senior investment director at Aberdeen Group PLC, an investor in both Rio and BHP. "There aren't many other ways to gain copper scale."
Why BHP's Hands May Be Tied
Despite the pressure, BHP is unlikely to launch a counterbid for Glencore, according to sources. The challenges are multifaceted. Firstly, both BHP and Glencore are giants in metallurgical coal, meaning any merger would face intense antitrust scrutiny. While BHP could theoretically bid for Glencore and then sell the coal assets, the complexity is daunting.
Secondly, BHP's chief executive, Mike Henry, is nearing the end of his tenure, potentially hindering the company's ability to negotiate a transformational deal of this scale. Henry has also spent years preaching M&A discipline to investors, carefully rebuilding trust after a series of disastrous deals during the last commodity cycle.
George Cheveley, a portfolio manager at Ninety One and a former BHP analyst, noted that while BHP must consider its options, the company "may find it difficult emotionally after their failure to close a deal with Anglo American." For now, BHP is monitoring the Rio-Glencore talks and reviewing its strategic options with advisers, content to watch from the sidelines as the landscape it helped redraw evolves without it.
The situation is further complicated for BHP by a mounting dispute over iron ore sales to China, its most important customer, adding another layer of strategic challenge as its rivals consolidate power in the crucial copper market.
