Macquarie Warns of $200 Oil if Iran Conflict Extends Through June
Analysts from Macquarie Group Ltd. have issued a stark warning that oil prices could skyrocket to an unprecedented $200 per barrel if the ongoing war involving Iran persists through the end of June. This forecast hinges on the critical condition that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, severely disrupting global energy flows.
High-Stakes Scenarios and Probabilities
In a detailed note dated March 27, 2026, Macquarie analysts, including Vikas Dwivedi, outlined two primary scenarios. The first, with a 40% probability, projects that if the conflict stretches through the second quarter, it would drive real oil prices to historically high levels, potentially reaching $200 per barrel. The second scenario, deemed more likely at 60%, suggests the war could conclude by the end of March, mitigating such extreme price spikes.
"If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand," the analysts emphasized in their report. They added that the timing of the strait's reopening and any physical damage to energy infrastructure are key factors determining the long-term impact on commodities.
Current Market Turmoil and Historical Context
Brent crude, the global benchmark, is on track for a record monthly gain in March, fueled by the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran that has destabilized the oil-rich Middle East. The conflict has led Tehran to oversee a near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for energy shipments.
As of Friday, Brent was trading near $110 per barrel, after briefly touching a crisis-high of $119.50 earlier in the month. This compares to the nominal peak of $147.50 set in 2008, according to Bloomberg-compiled data, highlighting the potential for further escalation.
Geopolitical Developments and Supply Disruptions
Recent geopolitical moves have added to the uncertainty. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump extended a deadline for potential strikes on Iran's energy sites by 10 days, pushing the timeline to April 6. Trump noted that Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the strait as a goodwill gesture, but the overall closure persists.
The analysts pointed out that the strait's shutdown "has sent both crude and refined-product prices soaring due to the magnitude of the disruption." In pre-conflict times, this waterway facilitated daily transits of approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil and 5 million barrels of refined products, underscoring its critical role in global energy markets.
As the situation evolves, market watchers are bracing for continued volatility, with Macquarie's warning serving as a sobering reminder of the high stakes involved in this geopolitical crisis.
