Investors in SpaceX will finally get clarity next week when the quiet period ends for analysts at banks that underwrote the company's record-breaking US$86 billion initial public offering last month. Since the IPO, shareholders have had few financial projections to assess the stock's worth.
Analyst Research Influx Expected
Starting Tuesday, a wave of new research, price targets, and growth estimates is expected from banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp., Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase & Co., along with 18 other participating banks. These reports will help shed light on near-term and long-term share direction.
“Everyone’s talking about what this company could be in 2030 and not what they can be for the next 12 months,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. “It’s an investment where you’re looking out to a brighter future, but you’re still looking out four years.”
Valuation Challenges
SpaceX's valuation is difficult because it doesn't fit traditional aerospace, telecom, cloud, or AI categories. The company is expected to report about US$36 billion in revenue in 2026, based on early estimates from non-IPO analysts, and it is not yet profitable.
SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio stands at 41 times projected revenue over the next 12 months, according to Bloomberg data. For comparison, Palantir Technologies Inc., the most expensive S&P 500 stock by this metric, trades at 32 times. Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. are below nine times estimated sales.
Volatility and Long-Term Projections
“There’s so much future value of the company tied up in revenue streams that are still to some extent distant,” said Robert Gruendyke, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. “It’s going to lead to much more volatility in the stock than most more established, mature businesses.”
Wall Street has highlighted SpaceX's aggressive growth path. Goldman Sachs projects total revenue of US$474 billion in 2030. Evercore ISI expects sales to top US$1 trillion by 2031, and Morgan Stanley sees revenue reaching US$3.4 trillion in 2040.
“I may not be alive to see that,” said Vikram Rai, portfolio manager and macro trader at First New York. “When you throw projections so far out in the future, there’s no way to check it.”
Stock Performance Since IPO
SpaceX shares debuted at US$135 on June 11, opened at US$150 a day later, and surged to a close of US$201.80 on June 16, giving a market capitalization of US$2.6 trillion and making it the sixth-largest company globally. However, by Wednesday, the stock closed at US$157.54 with a market cap below US$2.1 trillion, a 22% decline from its high and near its post-IPO trading level.
