When it comes to the United States, the first negotiation is not necessarily the one that matters most. According to Eliot Pence, the current round of Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) talks serves merely as a staging ground for the next round. What happens in between these negotiations will ultimately determine the outcome.
Pence, who has spent much of his professional life between Washington and Silicon Valley, observes that while these two regions appear vastly different—one dominated by policymakers and diplomats, the other by founders and engineers—they share a unique ability to shape the future. Today, Washington and Silicon Valley are more interconnected than ever before.
Influence Begins with Ideas
The key lesson Pence draws from both environments is that influence rarely starts with facts; it begins with ideas. The most powerful individuals and institutions believe they can create their own reality and future. Facts, in this context, become footnotes. The future, he argues, creates the facts, not the other way around.
This perspective is particularly relevant as Canada prepares for another round of CUSMA negotiations. While much of the debate will focus on trade balances, tariff schedules, market access, and existing economic relationships, Pence contends that these details are not where true influence originates. Canada often starts with today’s realities and attempts to derive a vision from them. A more successful approach would be to begin with a vision of a future so valuable that others want to help build it, establish oneself as one of its authors, and become indispensable to its execution.
Historical Precedent
Canadians have a long history of this approach. Pierre-Esprit Radisson, Canada’s founding entrepreneur, pioneered it. He did not persuade the English Crown to support what would become the Hudson’s Bay Company by presenting an analysis of the fur trade. Instead, he offered a vision of a new route, a new geography, and a new commercial future. The facts supported the proposal, but the idea created the opportunity. What he created was the continent’s first multinational corporation.
Negotiation as a Staging Ground
Winning the idea is only the first phase. The purpose of a negotiation is not to secure a perfect agreement but to create enough time and space to become stronger before the next one. Too often, countries treat agreements as destinations when they are really staging grounds. The most successful nations understand that every negotiation is part of a longer cycle where periods of stability are used to build capabilities, attract investment, develop industries, and accumulate leverage.
Execution is critical. Once a strategic vision is established, it must be translated into thousands of practical actions: companies investing, universities training talent, governments building infrastructure, entrepreneurs creating new ventures, and capital flowing into key sectors. Over time, an idea becomes an ecosystem, and ecosystems create leverage.
Canada’s Choice
Canada’s choice regarding the U.S. is not between dependence and separation. Dependence is increasingly uncomfortable, while separation is unrealistic and would come at enormous cost. The more promising path is deeper integration combined with greater leverage: integrating where Canada can create unique value while simultaneously building capabilities that make the country increasingly indispensable over time.
