United States tariffs and supply-chain disruptions are eroding Mexico's gains as a manufacturing hub, raising the risk that the country slips back into exporting lower-value goods that create few jobs or investment opportunities, data suggest.
Record exports mask a shift
On the surface, Mexico's exports are still breaking records. Shipments surged nearly 33 percent from a year earlier in April to US$72 billion, according to official data released Monday. Imports climbed 24 percent to a record as well, but with a telling detail: intermediate goods used in manufacturing and assembly made up nearly 80 percent of total imports in the first four months of the year.
“Mexico's export profile has deteriorated significantly since last year,” said Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base. “Mexican exports have become extremely reliant on inputs from Asia that are just assembled in Mexico.”
Shift away from high-value industries
The data suggest Mexico's trade profile is shifting away from more lucrative industries built around highly integrated supply chains, such as its vast auto sector, and back toward lower-value goods that require simpler assembly, or none at all. That marks a setback for President Claudia Sheinbaum's plan to move Mexico beyond its maquiladora model and toward higher-value exports to the U.S. The goal, outlined in her “Plan Mexico” economic blueprint, now faces even steeper challenges as a high-stakes review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement trade pact approaches.
“Mexican factories are essentially triangulating products. They receive high-value inputs and package them for shipment to the U.S.,” Siller said. “If the U.S. strategy was to transform Mexico into a new, closer China, it's succeeding.”
Stagnation in auto exports, boom in computers
In fact, Mexico's exports of light vehicles have stagnated as U.S. tariffs and other barriers to trade with its northern neighbour have increased. At the same time, exports of computer equipment spiked by 144 percent last year, doubling their share of the country's total exports to almost 13 percent, largely due to lower trade barriers for those products in the U.S. plus strong demand from the AI-driven data centre boom. But such triple-digit growth can mask where the Mexican economy would benefit more. While Mexico's automotive industry employs 800,000 people, computer equipment assembly employs only 60,000, mainly in the northern part of the country.
Mining growth without added value
Mining is another sector that underscores the trend of growth without adding value. Metals exports rose 71 percent in April and by an even higher level during the first four months of this year.
—With assistance from Alex Vasquez and Mario Baker Ramirez.
