Canadians are paying record prices for chicken while importing massive quantities of foreign poultry, mostly from the United States. If that sounds contradictory, it is because it is.
According to the latest Canadian Association of Regulated Importers (CARI) figures released May 23, Canada has already imported more than 52.2 million kilograms of chicken so far this year under WTO, CUSMA, and CPTPP commitments combined. Nearly 23.8 million kilograms came directly from the United States under CUSMA alone.
And yet, wholesale chicken prices in Canada continue to surge.
Over the past year, Canada imported roughly 200 to 215 million kilograms of chicken overall, enough for approximately 1.3 to 1.4 billion meals. About 60 per cent came from the United States. Most Canadians likely have no idea how often they may already be consuming imported chicken in nuggets, deli meats, frozen meals, restaurant sandwiches, soups, and prepared foods.
Under supply management, Canadians were promised something very different: stable supply, mostly domestic production, and predictable prices.
Instead, Canada now faces one of the tightest chicken markets in decades.
Industry sources indicate Canada's chicken sector has underproduced relative to allocation targets in 12 of the last 14 production periods dating back to March 2024 — something many insiders say has never happened in the modern history of supply management. Meanwhile, retailers increasingly rely on chicken to offset high beef prices, intensifying demand pressures throughout the system.
The contrast with the United States is striking. American wholesale boneless skinless chicken breast prices recently fell to roughly US$1 per pound. In Canada, comparable wholesale prices have reportedly climbed near $13/kg. The price spread has become so extreme that importers are now bringing chicken into Canada over the 249 per cent tariff wall and still making money doing so.
That should alarm policymakers.
Structural Distress in the System
Historically, importing over the tariff wall only occurred during extraordinary shortages. The fact that it is happening again, barely a year after the same phenomenon emerged in 2025, suggests something deeper is wrong structurally.
The most revealing part of the current market is not the official quota imports themselves, but the explosion in supplementary permits. CARI data shows “Chicken to Compete” permits are up more than 876 per cent year-to-date. These permits are intended to serve as a pressure valve when domestic supply cannot adequately meet market demand.
In other words, the system itself is signaling distress.
Even more revealing is where the pain is being felt. Farmers are not necessarily the biggest losers. Large integrated processors continue to perform relatively well financially, while many independent processors, restaurants, and smaller operators struggle to absorb rapidly escalating input costs. Some are reportedly considering exiting the business altogether because they lack sufficient access to product.
What This Means for Consumers
Retail prices typically lag wholesale spikes by four to eight weeks. The wholesale increases occurring now are likely to push retail prices even higher through the summer barbecue season. Consumers should expect to pay more for chicken at the grocery store and in restaurants as the season progresses.
The combination of underproduction, rising demand, and reliance on imports has created a perfect storm for chicken prices in Canada. Unless the supply management system is reformed to better align production with demand, Canadians may continue to face elevated prices and increasing dependence on foreign poultry.
