A recent research paper has proposed that the widespread use of iPhones could be a contributing factor to declining fertility rates. Published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the study highlights that the U.S. fertility rate has dropped by 22 percent since 2007, the year the first iPhone was released in the country. The researchers argue that this decline cannot be fully explained by economic conditions, contraceptive use, housing or childcare costs, or other commonly cited factors.
Canada's Fertility Rate Hits Record Low
In Canada, the fertility rate reached a record low of 1.25 children per woman in 2024, placing the country on the ultra-low fertility list alongside Japan, Singapore, and Spain. The study draws a parallel between the timing of iPhone availability and these declines.
Methodology and Findings
Until 2011, the iPhone was exclusively available in the U.S. through AT&T, allowing researchers to compare birth rates in counties with near-universal AT&T coverage to those with little or none. The results show a striking relationship: teen births declined by 13.8 percent in counties without AT&T coverage, compared to 18.9 percent in counties with partial coverage and 26 percent in counties with near-universal coverage. Births to women in their twenties fell by 10 percent in areas without coverage, compared to 14.6 percent in extensively covered areas. Among women in their thirties, births rose by 3.8 percent in counties without coverage but fell by 1.2 percent in counties with extensive coverage.
After adjusting for other factors, the researchers estimate that iPhone access reduced births by 4.5 to 8 percent among women aged 15 to 19, and by 3.2 to 6.6 percent among those aged 20 to 24. Overall, the diffusion of the iPhone explains 33 to 52 percent of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15 to 44.
Possible Explanations
The study proposes three mechanisms through which iPhones may affect fertility: reduced in-person social interactions, increased access to information about contraception and abortion, and greater exposure to pornography. The researchers liken the smartphone to an unofficial form of contraception. This theory is supported by earlier research, including a study in the American Economic Review that found deactivating Facebook for four weeks increased offline socializing with family and friends.
